Football · Colombia Primera A · 04/11, 00:20

Prediction: Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Cordoba

Team pages: Deportivo Pasto · Jaguares de Cordoba

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Deportivo Pasto1.84

Jaguares de Cordoba0.97

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Deportivo Pasto Draw Jaguares de Cordoba

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Pasto 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDLLWL

Jaguares de Cordoba 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLLWLLWL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Pasto 3–2–1 Jaguares de Cordoba (6 last)

Jaguares de Cordoba2-3Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares de Cordoba0-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-1Jaguares de Cordoba
Jaguares de Cordoba1-0Deportivo Pasto
Deportivo Pasto1-0Jaguares de Cordoba
Deportivo Pasto4-0Jaguares de Cordoba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Pasto 1474 · Jaguares de Cordoba 1443

	Deportivo Pasto	Draw	Jaguares de Cordoba
Our model	57%	25%	18%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Pasto: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 11.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Pasto	Jaguares de Cordoba
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.3	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.8	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.8	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.82 ★
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 6.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:07 +10’	1.65	3.50	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:08 +87’	1.67	3.82	4.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Pasto 3–2–1 Jaguares de Cordoba

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	2-3 HT 1-2	Deportivo Pasto
04/08/24 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Pasto
06/02/24 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-1 HT 0-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
21/10/23 Colombia Primera A	Jaguares de Cordoba	1-0 HT 1-0	Deportivo Pasto
09/09/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	1-0 HT 1-0	Jaguares de Cordoba
08/05/23 Colombia Primera A	Deportivo Pasto	4-0 HT 1-0	Jaguares de Cordoba

Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atletico Nacional Medellin	16	11	2	3	32	13	35
2	America de Cali	16	10	4	2	31	12	34
3	Deportivo Cali	16	8	6	2	24	10	30
4	Atletico Bucaramanga	16	7	7	2	25	16	28
5	Independiente Santa Fe	16	8	4	4	23	17	28
6	Millonarios	16	6	8	2	24	14	26
7	Once Caldas	17	6	6	5	21	18	24
8	Independiente Medellin	16	7	2	7	23	24	23
9	Aguilas Doradas	16	5	7	4	21	20	22
10	Cucuta Deportivo	16	6	3	7	18	24	21
11	Deportes Tolima	16	5	5	6	18	19	20
12	Internacional de Bogota	17	4	8	5	21	23	20
13	Llaneros	17	6	2	9	19	23	20
14	Alianza	16	5	3	8	16	27	18
15	Deportivo Pereira	16	3	8	5	12	19	17
16	Junior	17	3	7	7	23	27	16
17	Boyaca Chico	16	4	4	8	13	26	16
18	Jaguares de Cordoba	16	3	4	9	17	29	13
19	Fortaleza CEIF	16	1	9	6	17	24	12
20	Deportivo Pasto	16	3	3	10	11	24	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Pasto	Jaguares de Cordoba
Deportes Tolima	1-0 W	3-2 W
Alianza	0-1 L	1-2 L
Fortaleza CEIF	0-0 D	2-2 D
Deportivo Pereira	1-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Pasto

LDWWLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
26/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	1-0	1	9	W
23/10	Atletico Nacional Medellin Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-3	2	4	L
20/10	Alianza Colombia Primera A	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
04/10	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/09	Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-3	4	1	L
20/09	Once Caldas Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
15/09	America de Cali Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	3	8	W
06/09	Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A	1-2	2-2	5	13	D
01/09	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-2	8	6	L

Jaguares de Cordoba

DDLLLWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	Deportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-1	12	3	L
27/10	Llaneros Colombia Primera A	0-0	1-0	6	10	W
22/10	Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A	0-1	1-2	4	3	L
18/10	Millonarios Colombia Primera A	1-2	1-4	0	11	L
11/10	Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A	1-0	3-2	1	6	W
03/10	Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A	0-0	0-2	5	9	L
27/09	Alianza Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	7	6	L
23/09	Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
12/09	Fortaleza CEIF Colombia Primera A	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
06/09	Junior Colombia Primera A	1-1	3-3	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Pasto win (56%). Probabilities: Deportivo Pasto 56%, draw 26%, Jaguares de Cordoba 18%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Deportivo Pasto 1.84 · Jaguares de Cordoba 0.97), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares de Cordoba?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.