Football · Iraq Stars League · 24/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Minaa vs Al Karma

Team pages: Al Minaa · Al Karma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.21Total

Al Minaa0.84

Al Karma1.37

1X2

22% 29% 48%

Al Minaa Draw Al Karma

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Minaa 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLDWL

Al Karma 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Al Minaa 2–2 Al Karma (4 last)

Al Minaa2-0Al Karma
Al Karma2-0Al Minaa
Al Karma0-1Al Minaa
Al Minaa0-2Al Karma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Minaa 1482 · Al Karma 1581

	Al Minaa	Draw	Al Karma
Our model	22%	30%	48%
Market	22%	29%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.21 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Karma (rating 1482 vs 1581).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Minaa	Al Karma
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.7 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.7	2.9 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.10

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:12 +5’	4.00	3.10	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Minaa 2–0–2 Al Karma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Karma
22/11/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	2-0 HT 1-0	Al Minaa
03/05/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Karma	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Minaa
08/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Minaa	0-2 HT 0-1	Al Karma

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Minaa	Al Karma
Al Kahrabaa	1-2 L	1-1 D
Al Naft SC	0-3 L	3-0 W
Erbil SC	0-2 L	2-1 W
Zakho	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Karma (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Minaa

DWWLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
10/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	5	5	W
18/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
13/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
09/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
05/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-3	0-3	5	5	L
31/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	11	4	L
26/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
20/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	5	3	W
15/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D

Al Karma

DWDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
10/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-2	5	2	W
19/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
14/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	6	9	W
09/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	2-0	3-0	5	3	W
03/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
30/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	9	2	W
26/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	2	10	D
21/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
15/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Minaa vs Al Karma?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Karma win (48%). Probabilities: Al Minaa 22%, draw 29%, Al Karma 48%.

How many goals are expected in Al Minaa vs Al Karma?

The model expects 2.21 goals (Al Minaa 0.84 · Al Karma 1.37), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Minaa vs Al Karma?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.