Football · Iraq Stars League · 23/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Zawra'a vs Al Shorta SC

Team pages: Al Zawra'a · Al Shorta SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Al Zawra'a1.04

Al Shorta SC1.01

1X2

35% 31% 33%

Al Zawra'a Draw Al Shorta SC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Zawra'a 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWDWWWLL

Al Shorta SC 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWDWDD

Head-to-head

Al Zawra'a 2–2–2 Al Shorta SC (6 last)

Al Shorta SC1-2Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a1-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC0-1Al Zawra'a
Al Zawra'a0-0Al Shorta SC
Al Zawra'a0-2Al Shorta SC
Al Shorta SC2-2Al Zawra'a

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Zawra'a 1533 · Al Shorta SC 1561

	Al Zawra'a	Draw	Al Shorta SC
Our model	34%	33%	33%
Market	36%	30%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Zawra'a	Al Shorta SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	30/70/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.9	3.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.00

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 21.85

Under 21.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:59 +8’	2.50	3.00	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Zawra'a 2–2–2 Al Shorta SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	1-2 HT 0-2	Al Zawra'a
26/02/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Shorta SC
22/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Shorta SC	0-1 HT 0-0	Al Zawra'a
08/02/25 Iraq Stars League	Al Zawra'a	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Shorta SC
14/07/24 Iraq League	Al Zawra'a	0-2 HT 0-2	Al Shorta SC
11/02/24 Iraq League	Al Shorta SC	2-2 HT 1-2	Al Zawra'a

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Zawra'a	Al Shorta SC
Ghaz Al Shamal	0-1 L	0-0 D
Al Gharraf	2-0 W	2-1 W
Al Kahrabaa	1-0 W	2-0 W
Mosul FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Karbalaa FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Shorta SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Zawra'a

DDWWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
08/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	3	7	L
17/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
10/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
07/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
03/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	Zakho Iraq Stars League	2-0	4-0	3	6	W
25/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-0	4-0	2	4	W
21/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
15/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Al Shorta SC

DLWWDWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
08/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	6	D
19/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
12/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
08/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
04/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
30/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
21/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
16/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Zawra'a vs Al Shorta SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Zawra'a win (35%). Probabilities: Al Zawra'a 35%, draw 31%, Al Shorta SC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Al Zawra'a vs Al Shorta SC?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Al Zawra'a 1.04 · Al Shorta SC 1.01), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Zawra'a vs Al Shorta SC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.