Football · Iraq Stars League · 23/10, 21:00

Prediction: Al Jolan SC vs Al Kahrabaa

Team pages: Al Jolan SC · Al Kahrabaa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.1Total

Al Jolan SC1.18

Al Kahrabaa0.93

1X2

41% 32% 28%

Al Jolan SC Draw Al Kahrabaa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Jolan SC 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWLDWDLDDW

Al Kahrabaa 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

LDDDDLWLDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Jolan SC 1514 · Al Kahrabaa 1461

	Al Jolan SC	Draw	Al Kahrabaa
Our model	40%	32%	27%
Market	41%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.1 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Jolan SC (rating 1514 vs 1461).
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Jolan SC	Al Kahrabaa
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.1	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 1.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +16’	2.20	2.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Jolan SC	Al Kahrabaa
Al Gharraf	0-0 D	0-0 D
Al Talaba	2-2 D	0-1 L
Ghaz Al Shamal	1-0 W	1-1 D
Al Shorta SC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Al Karkh	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Al Jolan SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Jolan SC

DWLDWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
09/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
18/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	1-2	2-2	0	3	D
14/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	5	7	L
09/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
04/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
29/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	3-1	3-3	2	7	D
25/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
20/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
14/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D

Al Kahrabaa

LDDDDLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	0	6	L
10/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
19/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
13/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
07/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
03/09	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
29/08	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	5	10	D
20/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	1	6	D
16/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Jolan SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Jolan SC win (41%). Probabilities: Al Jolan SC 41%, draw 32%, Al Kahrabaa 28%.

How many goals are expected in Al Jolan SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model expects 2.1 goals (Al Jolan SC 1.18 · Al Kahrabaa 0.93), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Jolan SC vs Al Kahrabaa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.