Football · Iraq Stars League · 23/10, 18:45

Prediction: Al Karkh vs Mosul FC

Team pages: Al Karkh · Mosul FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Al Karkh1.53

Mosul FC1.35

1X2

40% 29% 32%

Al Karkh Draw Mosul FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Karkh 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLLWWLD

Mosul FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLLLLW

Head-to-head

Al Karkh 1–1–0 Mosul FC (2 last)

Mosul FC1-2Al Karkh
Al Karkh2-2Mosul FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Karkh 1485 · Mosul FC 1457

	Al Karkh	Draw	Mosul FC
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	39%	30%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Karkh	Mosul FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.3	1.7 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:00 +6’	2.30	3.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Karkh 1–1–0 Mosul FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Mosul FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Al Karkh
04/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Karkh	2-2 HT 2-2	Mosul FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Karkh	Mosul FC
Al Shorta SC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Al Karma	2-3 L	1-1 D
Karbalaa FC	0-1 L	3-0 W
Erbil SC	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Mosul FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Karkh

DLLDLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/10	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-3	5	2	L
17/09	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	3-2	3-2	3	2	W
13/09	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
09/09	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-1	2-3	3	2	L
04/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
29/08	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	2-2	2	5	D
25/08	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
20/08	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
01/06	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Mosul FC

DWWLDLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	9	W
07/10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	5	4	L
18/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
13/09	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
09/09	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
03/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-2	3	2	D
30/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	0	1	L
26/08	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
21/08	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	2-0	2-1	4	7	W
15/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Karkh vs Mosul FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Karkh win (40%). Probabilities: Al Karkh 40%, draw 29%, Mosul FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Al Karkh vs Mosul FC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Al Karkh 1.53 · Mosul FC 1.35), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Karkh vs Mosul FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.