Football · Iraq Stars League · 23/10, 16:30

Prediction: Duhok vs Karbalaa FC

Team pages: Duhok · Karbalaa FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Duhok1.86

Karbalaa FC0.87

1X2

60% 24% 16%

Duhok Draw Karbalaa FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Duhok 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

DDDDWDLDWL

Karbalaa FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLLLDL

Head-to-head

Duhok 3–1–0 Karbalaa FC (4 last)

Duhok2-1Karbalaa FC
Karbalaa FC1-2Duhok
Karbalaa FC1-1Duhok
Duhok2-1Karbalaa FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Duhok 1502 · Karbalaa FC 1432

	Duhok	Draw	Karbalaa FC
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	60%	24%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Duhok (rating 1502 vs 1432).
H2H favours Duhok: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Duhok	Karbalaa FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	0.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.5	1.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0	3.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.80

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:53 +13’	1.50	3.80	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Duhok 3–1–0 Karbalaa FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/04/25 Iraq Stars League	Duhok	2-1 HT 1-0	Karbalaa FC
07/01/25 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Duhok
09/05/24 Iraq League	Karbalaa FC	1-1 HT 0-1	Duhok
23/02/24 Iraq League	Duhok	2-1 HT 0-0	Karbalaa FC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Duhok	Karbalaa FC
Al Zawra'a	3-0 W	1-1 D
Al Karkh	2-3 L	1-0 W
Al Quwa Al Jawiya	2-1 W	2-3 L
Al Naft SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Al Gharraf	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Duhok (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Duhok

DDDDWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-2	15	4	L
08/10	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	1-0	3-0	6	7	W
18/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
13/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	1-1	2-3	6	6	L
08/09	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
03/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-1	5	8	W
30/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
26/08	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
22/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	2-3	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	9	3	D

Karbalaa FC

DDLLWLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Al Gharraf Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
10/10	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
18/09	Erbil SC Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	3	5	L
14/09	Al Naft SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
07/09	Al Quwa Al Jawiya Iraq Stars League	0-1	2-3	2	3	L
04/09	Al Karkh Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
30/08	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
26/08	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-1	0-3	8	4	L
21/08	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	10	D
16/08	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Duhok vs Karbalaa FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Duhok win (60%). Probabilities: Duhok 60%, draw 24%, Karbalaa FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Duhok vs Karbalaa FC?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Duhok 1.86 · Karbalaa FC 0.87), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Duhok vs Karbalaa FC?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.