Football · Iraq Stars League · 22/10, 21:00

Prediction: Al Gharraf vs Al Naft SC

Team pages: Al Gharraf · Al Naft SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.77Total

Al Gharraf0.79

Al Naft SC0.98

1X2

28% 33% 38%

Al Gharraf Draw Al Naft SC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Gharraf 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLDLLLDW

Al Naft SC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWWWW

Head-to-head

Al Gharraf 1–1 Al Naft SC (2 last)

Al Naft SC1-0Al Gharraf
Al Gharraf2-0Al Naft SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Gharraf 1460 · Al Naft SC 1559

	Al Gharraf	Draw	Al Naft SC
Our model	27%	36%	37%
Market	29%	31%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 1.77 goals · Bet365 line 1.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Naft SC (rating 1460 vs 1559).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Gharraf	Al Naft SC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	1.9 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X2.88

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.98

Under 1.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	2.20 → 2.30▲	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
03:57 +8’	3.25	2.88	2.20
04:58 +7’	3.10▼	2.88	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Gharraf 1–0–1 Al Naft SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/04/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Naft SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Al Gharraf
14/01/26 Iraq Stars League	Al Gharraf	2-0 HT 0-0	Al Naft SC

Standings · Iraq Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Karma	10	7	3	0	17	7	24
2	Al Naft SC	10	6	3	1	13	5	21
3	Al Zawra'a	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
4	Erbil SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
4	Newroz SC	10	5	3	2	13	5	18
6	Al Shorta SC	10	4	5	1	10	5	17
7	Al Jolan SC	10	3	5	2	10	9	14
8	Al Talaba	10	3	5	2	11	11	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	10	2	6	2	14	12	12
10	Duhok	10	2	6	2	14	13	12
11	Diyala FC	10	3	3	4	15	16	12
12	Al Minaa	10	3	3	4	10	12	12
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	2	5	3	5	7	11
14	Mosul FC	10	3	2	5	10	15	11
15	Zakho	10	2	3	5	7	14	9
16	Al Gharraf	10	2	3	5	6	13	9
17	Al Karkh	10	2	2	6	13	18	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	1	5	4	6	11	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	1	5	4	7	14	8
20	Karbalaa FC	10	1	3	6	7	17	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Gharraf	Al Naft SC
Karbalaa FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Diyala FC	1-3 L	2-0 W
Al Minaa	0-3 L	3-0 W
Newroz SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Duhok	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Naft SC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Gharraf

DWLLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
09/10	Al Jolan SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
17/09	Al Zawra'a Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-2	4	0	L
12/09	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	1-1	1-3	7	1	L
08/09	Al Shorta SC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/09	Al Kahrabaa Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
30/08	Ghaz Al Shamal Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
26/08	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
22/08	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
16/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	1-0	1-1	2	3	D

Al Naft SC

WDDDWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Zakho Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
09/10	Diyala FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
18/09	Mosul FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
14/09	Karbalaa FC Iraq Stars League	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
09/09	Al Karma Iraq Stars League	0-2	0-3	2	3	L
05/09	Al Minaa Iraq Stars League	3-0	3-0	0	5	W
31/08	Al Talaba Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	3	8	D
26/08	Duhok Iraq Stars League	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Naft Maysan Iraq Stars League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/06	Newroz SC Iraq Stars League	1-0	2-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Gharraf vs Al Naft SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al Naft SC win (38%). Probabilities: Al Gharraf 28%, draw 33%, Al Naft SC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Al Gharraf vs Al Naft SC?

The model expects 1.77 goals (Al Gharraf 0.79 · Al Naft SC 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Gharraf vs Al Naft SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.