Football · Panama LPF · 25/10, 01:15

Prediction: CD Universitario vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Team pages: CD Universitario · CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

CD Universitario1.24

CA Independiente de la Chorrera1.27

1X2

35% 29% 36%

CD Universitario Draw CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Universitario 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWDDLDWLL

CA Independiente de la Chorrera 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLLDWLDW

Head-to-head

CD Universitario 2–2–2 CA Independiente de la Chorrera (6 last)

CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-2CD Universitario
CA Independiente de la Chorrera3-2CD Universitario
CD Universitario1-1CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CA Independiente de la Chorrera2-0CD Universitario
CD Universitario3-2CA Independiente de la Chorrera
CD Universitario1-0CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Universitario 1484 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1498

	CD Universitario	Draw	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Our model	35%	29%	36%
Market	35%	29%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 11.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Universitario	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.1	5.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.93

Under 2.251.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.97 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +49’	2.55	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:54	2.29	3.14	2.97

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Universitario 2–2–2 CA Independiente de la Chorrera

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/08/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-2 HT 0-2	CD Universitario
26/04/26 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	3-2 HT 1-0	CD Universitario
25/01/26 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	1-1 HT 0-1	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
12/10/25 Panama LPF	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Universitario
20/07/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	3-2 HT 3-2	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
06/04/25 Panama LPF	CD Universitario	1-0 HT 0-0	CA Independiente de la Chorrera

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	12	7	2	3	23	14	23
2	Veraguas CD	12	4	6	2	18	18	18
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	12	3	5	4	18	18	14
4	CD Universitario	12	2	5	5	10	13	11
5	Herrera FC	12	3	2	7	12	26	11
6	Union Cocle	12	1	2	9	10	24	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Universitario	CA Independiente de la Chorrera
San Francisco FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Plaza Amador	1-2 L	2-2 D
UMECIT	2-1 W	0-2 L
Alianza FC Panama	0-0 D	0-2 L
Tauro FC	0-1 L	1-2 L
Sporting San Miguelito	1-1 D	4-3 W
CD Arabe Unido	0-0 D	1-1 D
Union Cocle	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: CA Independiente de la Chorrera (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Universitario

DDWDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
04/10	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
27/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
20/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	9	5	D
13/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	10	8	L
06/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-1	1-1	10	5	D
30/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
23/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
16/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	2-0	2-2	5	6	D

CA Independiente de la Chorrera

DLWLLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	3-0	3-1	3	10	W
05/10	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-1	4	9	D
29/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	10	6	L
21/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	2-0	4-3	4	4	W
13/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-1	2-2	5	2	D
08/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	4	5	L
29/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	6	10	L
23/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-0	3-0	4	5	W
15/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
11/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-2	2-2	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Universitario vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CA Independiente de la Chorrera win (36%). Probabilities: CD Universitario 35%, draw 29%, CA Independiente de la Chorrera 36%.

How many goals are expected in CD Universitario vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model expects 2.52 goals (CD Universitario 1.24 · CA Independiente de la Chorrera 1.27), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Universitario vs CA Independiente de la Chorrera?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.