Football · Colombia Primera A · 08/11, 00:10
Prediction: Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira
Team pages: Atletico Nacional Medellin · Deportivo Pereira
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.89Total
Atletico Nacional Medellin1.87
Deportivo Pereira1.02
1X2
Atletico Nacional Medellin
Draw
Deportivo Pereira
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Atletico Nacional Medellin
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Pereira
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Atletico Nacional Medellin
2–1–3
Deportivo Pereira
(6 last)
- Deportivo Pereira1-0Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Deportivo Pereira2-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-0Deportivo Pereira
- Deportivo Pereira1-1Atletico Nacional Medellin
- Atletico Nacional Medellin0-1Deportivo Pereira
- Atletico Nacional Medellin3-1Deportivo Pereira
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico Nacional Medellin (rating 1555 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Deportivo Pereira: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pereira | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 4.6 | 2 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.5 / 0.1 | 6.2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Nacional Medellin 2–1–3 Deportivo Pereira
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/26 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 23/07/25 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 10/02/25 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 08/11/24 Colombia Primera A | Deportivo Pereira | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin |
| 18/04/24 Colombia Primera A | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Deportivo Pereira |
| 02/11/23 Colombia Cup | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Deportivo Pereira |
Standings · Colombia Primera A · Finalizacion
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional Medellin | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 36 |
| 2 | America de Cali | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 31 | 12 | 34 |
| 3 | Deportivo Cali | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 26 | 10 | 33 |
| 4 | Atletico Bucaramanga | 17 | 7 | 8 | 2 | 26 | 17 | 29 |
| 5 | Independiente Santa Fe | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| 6 | Millonarios | 16 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 26 |
| 7 | Independiente Medellin | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 25 | 25 | 26 |
| 8 | Aguilas Doradas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 20 | 25 |
| 9 | Once Caldas | 17 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 18 | 24 |
| 10 | Cucuta Deportivo | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 18 | 24 | 21 |
| 11 | Deportes Tolima | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 12 | Internacional de Bogota | 17 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 23 | 20 |
| 13 | Llaneros | 17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 19 | 23 | 20 |
| 14 | Alianza | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 18 |
| 15 | Deportivo Pereira | 16 | 3 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 17 |
| 16 | Junior | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 23 | 27 | 16 |
| 17 | Boyaca Chico | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 28 | 16 |
| 18 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 29 | 13 |
| 19 | Fortaleza CEIF | 17 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 17 | 25 | 12 |
| 20 | Deportivo Pasto | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 12 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Atletico Nacional Medellin | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Bucaramanga | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Independiente Santa Fe | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Cucuta Deportivo | 0-1 L | 0-4 L |
| Boyaca Chico | 4-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Junior | 3-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Atletico Nacional Medellin (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Atletico Nacional Medellin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 30/10 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 26/10 | Independiente Medellin Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/10 | Deportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/10 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 0-1 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 17/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/10 | Deportes Tolima Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 01/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
2-1 | 3-1 | 7 | 10 | W |
| 25/09 | Millonarios Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 21/09 | Llaneros Colombia Primera A |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 7 | L |
Deportivo Pereira
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/10 | Jaguares de Cordoba Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | Once Caldas Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 7 | D |
| 20/10 | Boyaca Chico Colombia Primera A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 14/10 | Junior Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 10/10 | Deportivo Cali Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 04/10 | Cucuta Deportivo Colombia Primera A |
0-3 | 0-4 | 0 | 10 | L |
| 29/09 | Independiente Santa Fe Colombia Primera A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 11 | L |
| 26/09 | Internacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 10 | D |
| 18/09 | Aguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 13/09 | Atletico Bucaramanga Colombia Primera A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Atletico Nacional Medellin win (56%). Probabilities: Atletico Nacional Medellin 56%, draw 25%, Deportivo Pereira 19%.
How many goals are expected in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model expects 2.89 goals (Atletico Nacional Medellin 1.87 · Deportivo Pereira 1.02), with a 59% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Atletico Nacional Medellin vs Deportivo Pereira?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.