Football · Peru Liga 1 · 05/11, 02:30

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs Sport Boys

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · Sport Boys

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Universitario de Deportes2.24

Sport Boys0.9

1X2

66% 21% 13%

Universitario de Deportes Draw Sport Boys

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWLDWW

Sport Boys 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDLLW

Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 5–1–0 Sport Boys (6 last)

Sport Boys0-0Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes1-0Sport Boys
Sport Boys0-2Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-0Sport Boys
Sport Boys1-2Universitario de Deportes
Universitario de Deportes3-0Sport Boys

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1572 · Sport Boys 1498

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	Sport Boys
Our model	67%	20%	13%
Market	66%	21%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1572 vs 1498).
H2H favours Universitario de Deportes: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	Sport Boys
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

27.50

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.79

Under 2.752.03

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 5.22
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 9.40 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
23:08 +2’	1.40	4.33	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:55 +14’	1.30	5.22	9.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 5–1–0 Sport Boys

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
10/08/25 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	1-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys
09/03/25 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	0-2 HT 0-2	Universitario de Deportes
19/09/24 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-0 HT 2-0	Sport Boys
14/04/24 Peru Liga 1	Sport Boys	1-2 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes
21/09/23 Peru Liga 1	Universitario de Deportes	3-0 HT 1-0	Sport Boys

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	15	9	7	54	35	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	15	6	10	47	33	51
5	Cusco FC	32	16	3	13	46	44	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
10	Sport Huancayo	31	13	5	13	44	48	44
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	31	12	8	11	35	33	40
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	9	7	15	28	38	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	5	8	18	36	55	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes	Sport Boys
Juan Pablo II College	3-0 W	0-2 L
Alianza Atletico	4-1 W	1-3 L
FBC Melgar	2-2 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-4 L	1-0 W
Alianza Lima	2-1 W	1-1 D
FC Cajamarca	3-2 W	4-2 W
Sporting Cristal	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes

DWWWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
18/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-1	5	5	W
11/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
20/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
13/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	0	2	W
16/08	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	3-2	3	7	W
08/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	2	4	D

Sport Boys

DDWWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	2-1	4-2	4	2	W
17/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
11/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-3	6	9	L
20/09	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
13/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/09	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
30/08	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
23/08	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	3-1	5-1	3	2	W
16/08	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-1	11	9	D
09/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	0	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs Sport Boys?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (66%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 66%, draw 21%, Sport Boys 13%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs Sport Boys?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Universitario de Deportes 2.24 · Sport Boys 0.9), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs Sport Boys?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.