Football · Peru Liga 1 · 09/11, 00:00
Prediction: Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos
Team pages: Deportivo Garcilaso · Comerciantes Unidos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Deportivo Garcilaso2.03
Comerciantes Unidos1
1X2
Deportivo Garcilaso
Draw
Comerciantes Unidos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Deportivo Garcilaso
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Comerciantes Unidos
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Deportivo Garcilaso
1–2–2
Comerciantes Unidos
(5 last)
- Comerciantes Unidos0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
- Comerciantes Unidos0-0Deportivo Garcilaso
- Deportivo Garcilaso2-1Comerciantes Unidos
- Comerciantes Unidos2-1Deportivo Garcilaso
- Deportivo Garcilaso1-2Comerciantes Unidos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Deportivo Garcilaso 1528 · Comerciantes Unidos 1483
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Draw | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 59% | 25% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Garcilaso (rating 1528 vs 1483).
- H2H favours Comerciantes Unidos: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Deportivo Garcilaso | Comerciantes Unidos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.7 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.7 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Garcilaso 1–2–2 Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 27/07/25 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 16/02/25 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Comerciantes Unidos |
| 25/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | Comerciantes Unidos | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Deportivo Garcilaso |
| 28/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Comerciantes Unidos |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 37 | 60 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 35 | 54 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 48 | 49 |
| 10 | CD Los Chankas | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 51 | 47 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 48 | 59 | 41 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | 37 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 44 | 47 | 36 |
| 15 | AD Tarma | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36 | 48 | 31 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 65 | 29 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 29 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Deportivo Garcilaso | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 3-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Alianza Atletico | 2-3 L | 1-2 L |
| FBC Melgar | 2-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Sport Huancayo | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Universitario de Deportes | 4-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Comerciantes Unidos (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Deportivo Garcilaso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 28/10 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
0-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 26/10 | CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 10/10 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
3-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Sport Boys Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 30/08 | Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Comerciantes Unidos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 30/10 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 25/10 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 18/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 8 | L |
| 06/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 28/08 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Garcilaso win (60%). Probabilities: Deportivo Garcilaso 60%, draw 24%, Comerciantes Unidos 17%.
How many goals are expected in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Deportivo Garcilaso 2.03 · Comerciantes Unidos 1), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Garcilaso vs Comerciantes Unidos?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.