Football · Peru Liga 1 · 09/11, 02:30

Prediction: Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Moquegua

Team pages: Universitario de Deportes · Deportivo Moquegua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Universitario de Deportes2.32

Deportivo Moquegua0.67

1X2

74% 18% 8%

Universitario de Deportes Draw Deportivo Moquegua

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Universitario de Deportes 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWLDWWWD

Deportivo Moquegua 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLWLLD

Head-to-head

Universitario de Deportes 0–1–0 Deportivo Moquegua (1 last)

Deportivo Moquegua0-0Universitario de Deportes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Universitario de Deportes 1573 · Deportivo Moquegua 1424

	Universitario de Deportes	Draw	Deportivo Moquegua
Our model	74%	18%	8%
Market	74%	18%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Universitario de Deportes (rating 1573 vs 1424).
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Universitario de Deportes	Deportivo Moquegua
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	0.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 5.7	1.8 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

211.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.98

2 (+1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 16:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.25▲	Pinn 1.28
X	6.50 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.63 ★
2	15.00 → 11.00▼	Bet365 11.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 8.1% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:30 +8’	1.17	6.50	15.00
07:09 +10’	1.14▼	7.00▲	17.00▲
16:32 +1’	1.25▲	5.25▼	11.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:38 +6’	1.13	7.97	16.92
05:06 +17’	1.12▼	8.43▲	18.11▲
06:15 +5’	1.11▼	8.75▲	19.17▲
06:58 +20’	1.12▲	8.50▼	18.01▼
10:23 +1’	1.15▲	7.56▼	15.14▼
16:01 +41’	1.15▲	7.40▼	14.65▼
14:40 +17’	1.15▼	7.49▲	14.94▲
16:33 +1’	1.28▲	5.63▼	8.83▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Universitario de Deportes 0–1–0 Deportivo Moquegua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Deportivo Moquegua	0-0 HT 0-0	Universitario de Deportes

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	32	20	8	4	53	23	68
2	Universitario de Deportes	32	17	9	6	57	37	60
3	FBC Melgar	33	16	9	8	56	38	57
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Sporting Cristal	33	15	6	12	63	48	51
6	Cusco FC	33	16	3	14	46	47	51
7	Cienciano	33	15	5	13	54	46	50
8	Sport Huancayo	33	15	5	13	48	49	50
9	Alianza Atletico	33	14	7	12	49	48	49
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Sport Boys	32	12	9	11	37	35	41
12	Juan Pablo II College	33	11	8	14	48	59	41
13	Atletico Grau	33	10	7	16	32	41	37
14	Comerciantes Unidos	32	8	12	12	44	47	36
15	AD Tarma	33	7	11	15	36	48	31
16	FC Cajamarca	33	8	7	18	46	65	29
17	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Universitario de Deportes	Deportivo Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College	3-0 W	0-4 L
Alianza Atletico	4-1 W	1-4 L
Alianza Lima	2-1 W	0-1 L
CD Los Chankas	3-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Universitario de Deportes (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Universitario de Deportes

WWDWLDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
01/11	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
25/10	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-0	3-0	9	1	W
18/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	3-0	4-1	5	5	W
11/10	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	9	4	D
20/09	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-3	0-4	4	4	L
13/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
06/09	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
29/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-2	4-2	8	6	W
24/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	0	2	W

Deportivo Moquegua

WLLLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/11	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/10	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
25/10	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
18/10	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	4	0	W
08/10	Cienciano Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
20/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	0-2	0-4	0	7	L
13/09	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	1-2	1-2	10	7	L
06/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
30/08	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-4	5	5	L
22/08	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Moquegua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Universitario de Deportes win (74%). Probabilities: Universitario de Deportes 74%, draw 18%, Deportivo Moquegua 8%.

How many goals are expected in Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Universitario de Deportes 2.32 · Deportivo Moquegua 0.67), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Universitario de Deportes vs Deportivo Moquegua?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.