Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/11, 00:00

Prediction: FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College

Team pages: FBC Melgar · Juan Pablo II College

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

FBC Melgar2.16

Juan Pablo II College0.78

1X2

69% 19% 12%

FBC Melgar Draw Juan Pablo II College

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FBC Melgar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDWWDL

Juan Pablo II College 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWDWLWL

Head-to-head

FBC Melgar 0–3–0 Juan Pablo II College (3 last)

Juan Pablo II College1-1FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar1-1Juan Pablo II College
Juan Pablo II College1-1FBC Melgar

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FBC Melgar 1529 · Juan Pablo II College 1548

	FBC Melgar	Draw	Juan Pablo II College
Our model	68%	20%	11%
Market	69%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FBC Melgar	Juan Pablo II College
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.33▲	Pinn 1.34
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.22 ★
2	8.50 → 7.50▼	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
21:31 +1’	1.30	5.00	8.50
22:21 +1’	1.33▲	5.00	7.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:13 +9’	1.33	5.03	7.11
23:13 +2’	1.34▲	5.22▲	7.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FBC Melgar 0–3–0 Juan Pablo II College

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	1-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar
05/08/25 Peru Liga 1	FBC Melgar	1-1 HT 1-0	Juan Pablo II College
02/07/25 Peru Liga 1	Juan Pablo II College	1-1 HT 0-1	FBC Melgar

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	31	17	8	6	55	35	59
3	FBC Melgar	32	15	9	8	54	37	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	32	16	6	10	50	35	54
5	Cusco FC	32	16	3	13	46	44	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	Sport Huancayo	32	14	5	13	46	48	47
10	CD Los Chankas	32	13	8	11	39	51	47
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	31	12	8	11	35	33	40
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	32	9	7	16	29	41	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	32	7	8	17	25	46	29
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	32	5	8	19	38	58	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FBC Melgar	Juan Pablo II College
Sport Huancayo	0-2 L	2-0 W
Comerciantes Unidos	1-1 D	1-1 D
UTC Cajamarca	2-1 W	2-1 W
Universitario de Deportes	2-2 D	0-3 L
Sport Boys	1-1 D	2-0 W
AD Tarma	3-0 W	5-1 W
Alianza Lima	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Juan Pablo II College (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FBC Melgar

DLWWDDWWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/11	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-2	5	6	L
30/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-1	6	8	D
23/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
18/10	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
11/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
20/09	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
12/09	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
07/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	3-0	8	2	W
01/09	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	4	3	L
23/08	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	3	4	D

Juan Pablo II College

WWDWWDWLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
27/10	Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1	0-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/10	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
17/10	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
10/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	6	6	D
20/09	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-0	4-0	6	7	W
11/09	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	5	11	W
06/09	Alianza Lima Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
29/08	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	3-2	4-3	2	5	W
22/08	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	2-0	5-1	2	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FBC Melgar win (69%). Probabilities: FBC Melgar 69%, draw 19%, Juan Pablo II College 12%.

How many goals are expected in FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model expects 2.94 goals (FBC Melgar 2.16 · Juan Pablo II College 0.78), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FBC Melgar vs Juan Pablo II College?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.