Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/11, 21:30
Prediction: Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca
Team pages: Sport Boys · UTC Cajamarca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.01Total
Sport Boys1.95
UTC Cajamarca1.06
1X2
Sport Boys
Draw
UTC Cajamarca
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Sport Boys
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
UTC Cajamarca
1-0-9 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Sport Boys
1–5–0
UTC Cajamarca
(6 last)
- UTC Cajamarca0-0Sport Boys
- Sport Boys2-2UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca1-1Sport Boys
- Sport Boys1-1UTC Cajamarca
- UTC Cajamarca2-4Sport Boys
- UTC Cajamarca1-1Sport Boys
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sport Boys 1501 · UTC Cajamarca 1412
| Sport Boys | Draw | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Market | 56% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sport Boys (rating 1501 vs 1412).
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Sport Boys | UTC Cajamarca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.8 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.2 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.6 | 4.9 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sport Boys 1–5–0 UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Sport Boys |
| 03/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 2-2 HT 2-1 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 28/06/25 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Sport Boys |
| 27/10/24 Peru Liga 1 | Sport Boys | 1-1 HT 0-0 | UTC Cajamarca |
| 20/05/24 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Sport Boys |
| 29/09/23 Peru Liga 1 | UTC Cajamarca | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Sport Boys |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 37 | 60 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 35 | 54 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 48 | 49 |
| 10 | CD Los Chankas | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 51 | 47 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 48 | 59 | 41 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | 37 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 44 | 47 | 36 |
| 15 | AD Tarma | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36 | 48 | 31 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 65 | 29 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 29 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | 13 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Sport Boys | UTC Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Universitario de Deportes | 2-2 D | 2-4 L |
| FC Cajamarca | 4-2 W | 3-1 W |
| Juan Pablo II College | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Alianza Atletico | 1-3 L | 2-3 L |
| FBC Melgar | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Sport Huancayo | 1-2 L | 2-3 L |
| Sporting Cristal | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Cienciano | 5-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 0 D 8 L |
Better against common opponents: Sport Boys (5 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sport Boys
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/11 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 01/11 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 25/10 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 17/10 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 11/10 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 9 | L |
| 20/09 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
| 30/08 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
3-1 | 5-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
UTC Cajamarca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 28/10 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 23/10 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 11/10 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Sport Huancayo Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 11/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 11 | L |
| 04/09 | Alianza Atletico Peru Liga 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
2-1 | 2-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Sport Boys win (56%). Probabilities: Sport Boys 56%, draw 25%, UTC Cajamarca 18%.
How many goals are expected in Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model expects 3.01 goals (Sport Boys 1.95 · UTC Cajamarca 1.06), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Sport Boys vs UTC Cajamarca?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.