Football · Peru Liga 1 · 08/11, 19:00
Prediction: CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima
Team pages: CD Los Chankas · Alianza Lima
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
CD Los Chankas0.94
Alianza Lima1.7
1X2
CD Los Chankas
Draw
Alianza Lima
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
CD Los Chankas
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Alianza Lima
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CD Los Chankas
0–1–5
Alianza Lima
(6 last)
- Alianza Lima3-0CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas1-2Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima1-0CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas0-1Alianza Lima
- Alianza Lima3-0CD Los Chankas
- CD Los Chankas2-2Alianza Lima
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CD Los Chankas 1429 · Alianza Lima 1526
| CD Los Chankas | Draw | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 19% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 20% | 26% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alianza Lima (rating 1429 vs 1526).
- H2H favours Alianza Lima: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CD Los Chankas | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 2.1 | 1.4 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.7 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.2 | 3.5 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.5 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Los Chankas 0–1–5 Alianza Lima
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 3-0 HT 2-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 05/11/25 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alianza Lima |
| 19/04/25 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 1-0 HT 0-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 24/08/24 Peru Liga 1 | CD Los Chankas | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Alianza Lima |
| 29/03/24 Peru Liga 1 | Alianza Lima | 3-0 HT 2-0 | CD Los Chankas |
| 12/06/21 Peru Copa Bicentenario | CD Los Chankas | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Alianza Lima |
Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alianza Lima | 32 | 20 | 8 | 4 | 53 | 23 | 68 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 32 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 57 | 37 | 60 |
| 3 | FBC Melgar | 33 | 16 | 9 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 57 |
| 4 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | 50 | 35 | 54 |
| 5 | Sporting Cristal | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 63 | 48 | 51 |
| 6 | Cusco FC | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 46 | 47 | 51 |
| 7 | Cienciano | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 54 | 46 | 50 |
| 8 | Sport Huancayo | 33 | 15 | 5 | 13 | 48 | 49 | 50 |
| 9 | Alianza Atletico | 33 | 14 | 7 | 12 | 49 | 48 | 49 |
| 10 | CD Los Chankas | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 39 | 51 | 47 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 32 | 12 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 35 | 41 |
| 12 | Juan Pablo II College | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 48 | 59 | 41 |
| 13 | Atletico Grau | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 32 | 41 | 37 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 32 | 8 | 12 | 12 | 44 | 47 | 36 |
| 15 | AD Tarma | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 36 | 48 | 31 |
| 16 | FC Cajamarca | 33 | 8 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 65 | 29 |
| 17 | Deportivo Moquegua | 32 | 7 | 8 | 17 | 25 | 46 | 29 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 32 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 38 | 58 | 13 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CD Los Chankas | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Moquegua | 0-0 D | 1-0 W |
| Cusco FC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Deportivo Garcilaso | 1-4 L | 0-1 L |
| AD Tarma | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Atletico Grau | 0-0 D | 3-1 W |
| Cienciano | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Sporting Cristal | 0-5 L | 2-3 L |
| Juan Pablo II College | 3-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Universitario de Deportes | 0-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 3 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Alianza Lima (9 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CD Los Chankas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 29/10 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/10 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 16/10 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 08/10 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 30/09 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 12/09 | FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 06/09 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
2-3 | 3-4 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 24/08 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
Alianza Lima
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11 | Cienciano Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 29/10 | Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1 |
2-2 | 2-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/10 | Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 18/10 | Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 12/10 | Cusco FC Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 19/09 | AD Tarma Peru Liga 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/09 | Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 06/09 | Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 30/08 | Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 23/08 | FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Alianza Lima win (54%). Probabilities: CD Los Chankas 20%, draw 26%, Alianza Lima 54%.
How many goals are expected in CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima?
The model expects 2.64 goals (CD Los Chankas 0.94 · Alianza Lima 1.7), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in CD Los Chankas vs Alianza Lima?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.