Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 08/11, 22:30

Prediction: Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo

Team pages: Deportivo La Guaira · Carabobo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Deportivo La Guaira1.16

Carabobo1.35

1X2

31% 29% 40%

Deportivo La Guaira Draw Carabobo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo La Guaira 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLDLDW

Carabobo 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDWWDW

Head-to-head

Deportivo La Guaira 0–4–2 Carabobo (6 last)

Carabobo3-1Deportivo La Guaira
Carabobo1-0Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira1-1Carabobo
Carabobo0-0Deportivo La Guaira
Deportivo La Guaira0-0Carabobo
Carabobo1-1Deportivo La Guaira

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo La Guaira 1481 · Carabobo 1585

	Deportivo La Guaira	Draw	Carabobo
Our model	31%	29%	40%
Market	31%	29%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carabobo (rating 1481 vs 1585).
H2H favours Carabobo: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo La Guaira	Carabobo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.5	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.10

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 17:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.90▲	Pinn 3.35 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.22
2	2.60 → 2.25▼	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +10’	2.45	3.10	2.60
23:03 +4’	2.63▲	3.10	2.40▼
09:20 +2’	2.60▼	3.10	2.50▲
17:41 +10’	2.90▲	3.10	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +79’	2.76	3.06	2.52
17:50 +1’	3.02▲	3.06	2.34▼
21:01 +1’	3.06▲	3.10▲	2.37▲
22:00	3.35▲	3.22▲	2.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo La Guaira 0–4–2 Carabobo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	3-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo La Guaira
16/09/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
03/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	1-1 HT 1-0	Carabobo
28/09/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo La Guaira
18/04/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo La Guaira	0-0 HT 0-0	Carabobo
10/11/24 Venezuela Primera Division	Carabobo	1-1 HT 1-1	Deportivo La Guaira

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Carabobo	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	Deportivo La Guaira	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
3	Metropolitanos FC	4	0	3	1	3	5	3
4	Portuguesa	4	0	2	2	3	8	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo La Guaira	Carabobo
Portuguesa	3-0 W	3-1 W
Metropolitanos FC	2-2 D	2-0 W
Deportivo Tachira	2-4 L	2-2 D
UCV	0-2 L	1-1 D
Academia Anzoategui FC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Carabobo (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo La Guaira

WLLLDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/11	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-0	4	11	W
02/11	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
29/10	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	2	4	L
26/10	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-2	2	6	D
17/10	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-2	8	5	L
10/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
20/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-3	2-4	2	6	L
16/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
12/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
07/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	9	5	W

Carabobo

WWWDWDWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/11	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/11	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-1	4	8	D
29/10	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
25/10	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	3-1	1	10	W
18/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	2-2	5	3	D
11/10	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
19/09	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	2	11	D
16/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	5	7	W
13/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Carabobo win (40%). Probabilities: Deportivo La Guaira 31%, draw 29%, Carabobo 40%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Deportivo La Guaira 1.16 · Carabobo 1.35), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo La Guaira vs Carabobo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.