Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 12/11, 23:00

Prediction: Academia Puerto Cabello vs Monagas

Team pages: Academia Puerto Cabello · Monagas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Academia Puerto Cabello1.67

Monagas0.87

1X2

55% 26% 19%

Academia Puerto Cabello Draw Monagas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Academia Puerto Cabello 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDWLLLW

Monagas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Academia Puerto Cabello 3–3–0 Monagas (6 last)

Monagas1-2Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello3-3Monagas
Monagas1-1Academia Puerto Cabello
Academia Puerto Cabello0-0Monagas
Academia Puerto Cabello3-2Monagas
Monagas1-2Academia Puerto Cabello

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Academia Puerto Cabello 1512 · Monagas 1485

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Draw	Monagas
Our model	55%	27%	18%
Market	56%	26%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Academia Puerto Cabello: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Academia Puerto Cabello	Monagas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.4	2.2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +45’	1.61	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Academia Puerto Cabello 3–3–0 Monagas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-2 HT 0-1	Academia Puerto Cabello
18/10/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	3-3 HT 2-1	Monagas
25/04/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-1 HT 0-0	Academia Puerto Cabello
04/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Academia Puerto Cabello	0-0 HT 0-0	Monagas
05/11/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Academia Puerto Cabello	3-2 HT 2-2	Monagas
21/10/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	1-2 HT 1-0	Academia Puerto Cabello

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Tachira	5	5	0	10	3	15
2	Caracas	5	2	3	7	7	6
3	Academia Puerto Cabello	5	2	3	6	7	6
4	Monagas	5	1	4	4	10	3

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Academia Puerto Cabello	Monagas
Caracas	2-1 W	0-2 L
Deportivo Tachira	2-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Academia Puerto Cabello (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Academia Puerto Cabello

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
04/11	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-3	10	7	L
31/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
27/10	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
24/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-1	2	7	W
18/10	Monagas Venezuela Primera Division	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
11/10	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
20/09	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	15	6	W
16/09	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
13/09	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	5	0	L

Monagas

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/11	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
03/11	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	3	7	L
01/11	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-2	4	7	W
28/10	Deportivo Tachira Venezuela Primera Division	0-2	0-2	7	9	L
24/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
18/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-3	2	0	D
12/10	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	10	W
19/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Monagas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Academia Puerto Cabello win (55%). Probabilities: Academia Puerto Cabello 55%, draw 26%, Monagas 19%.

How many goals are expected in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Monagas?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Academia Puerto Cabello 1.67 · Monagas 0.87), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Academia Puerto Cabello vs Monagas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.