Football · Venezuela Primera Division · 28/10, 00:30

Prediction: Deportivo Tachira vs Monagas

Team pages: Deportivo Tachira · Monagas

See it on the live radar ↗

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Deportivo Tachira2.16

Monagas1.12

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Deportivo Tachira Draw Monagas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Tachira 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWLDWWDW

Monagas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDWDL

Head-to-head

Deportivo Tachira 3–1–2 Monagas (6 last)

Deportivo Tachira1-1Monagas
Deportivo Tachira3-2Monagas
Monagas2-3Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira0-1Monagas
Monagas1-0Deportivo Tachira
Deportivo Tachira2-1Monagas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Tachira 1564 · Monagas 1508

	Deportivo Tachira	Draw	Monagas
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	59%	24%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportivo Tachira (rating 1564 vs 1508).
H2H favours Deportivo Tachira: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Tachira	Monagas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.5	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.50▲	Pinn 1.57
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Pinn 4.05 ★
2	5.75 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:04 +4’	1.44	3.90	5.75
01:50 +15’	1.50▲	3.75▼	5.00▼
23:08 +7’	1.50	3.75	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:10 +1’	1.54	4.01	5.17
07:55 +9’	1.54▲	3.99▼	5.16▼
23:13 +1’	1.57▲	4.05▲	5.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Tachira 3–1–2 Monagas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
22/10/26 Venezuela Cup	Deportivo Tachira	1-1 HT 0-0	Monagas
16/08/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	3-2 HT 1-1	Monagas
23/02/26 Venezuela Primera Division	Monagas	2-3 HT 1-2	Deportivo Tachira
04/09/25 Venezuela Cup	Deportivo Tachira	0-1 HT 0-1	Monagas
20/08/25 Venezuela Cup	Monagas	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Tachira
14/07/25 Venezuela Primera Division	Deportivo Tachira	2-1 HT 1-1	Monagas

Standings · Venezuela Primera Division · Primera Division 2026, Clausura, Main Round, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Academia Puerto Cabello	1	1	0	2	1	3
1	Deportivo Tachira	1	1	0	2	1	3
3	Caracas	1	0	1	1	2	0
3	Monagas	1	0	1	1	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Tachira	Monagas
Caracas	2-1 W	1-0 W
Academia Puerto Cabello	1-1 D	1-2 L
Estudiantes Merida	0-2 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Rayo Zuliano	3-1 W	1-1 D
Zamora	5-2 W	1-0 W
Metropolitanos FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Tachira (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportivo Tachira

LDWWLDWWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
18/10	Carabobo Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	2-2	7	3	D
11/10	UCV Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	4-1	5	5	W
20/09	Deportivo La Guaira Venezuela Primera Division	3-1	4-2	3	6	W
16/09	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
12/09	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-2	7	7	L
06/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	7	3	W
02/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	5-2	2	4	W
30/08	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
23/08	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	1-3	6	4	L

Monagas

DLWLWWDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
18/10	Academia Puerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division	1-2	3-3	2	0	D
12/10	Estudiantes Merida Venezuela Primera Division	2-0	2-1	5	10	W
19/09	Deportivo Rayo Zuliano Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
17/09	Zamora Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
13/09	Caracas Venezuela Primera Division	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/09	Metropolitanos FC Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
03/09	Academia Anzoategui FC Venezuela Primera Division	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
30/08	Trujillanos Venezuela Primera Division	0-1	1-3	2	5	L
23/08	Portuguesa Venezuela Primera Division	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Tachira vs Monagas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportivo Tachira win (60%). Probabilities: Deportivo Tachira 60%, draw 23%, Monagas 17%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Tachira vs Monagas?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Deportivo Tachira 2.16 · Monagas 1.12), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Tachira vs Monagas?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.