Football · Peru Liga 1 · 04/11, 02:00

Prediction: Alianza Lima vs Cienciano

Team pages: Alianza Lima · Cienciano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Alianza Lima1.93

Cienciano0.83

1X2

62% 23% 15%

Alianza Lima Draw Cienciano

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza Lima 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWWWL

Cienciano 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDWWLW

Head-to-head

Alianza Lima 2–1–3 Cienciano (6 last)

Cienciano0-1Alianza Lima
Cienciano2-1Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima0-1Cienciano
Alianza Lima3-0Cienciano
Cienciano2-1Alianza Lima
Cienciano0-0Alianza Lima

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza Lima 1527 · Cienciano 1492

	Alianza Lima	Draw	Cienciano
Our model	62%	23%	14%
Market	63%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cienciano: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza Lima	Cienciano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 6.4	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.54
2	6.25 → 6.25	Pinn 7.61 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:14 +23’	1.48	4.10	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:43 +8’	1.43	4.18	6.45
22:35 +14’	1.45▲	4.31▲	6.76▲
22:24 +41’	1.39▼	4.57▲	7.70▲
10:21 +50’	1.39▲	4.54▼	7.61▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza Lima 2–1–3 Cienciano

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	0-1 HT 0-1	Alianza Lima
29/09/25 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-1 HT 2-0	Alianza Lima
03/05/25 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	0-1 HT 0-0	Cienciano
21/08/24 Peru Liga 1	Alianza Lima	3-0 HT 1-0	Cienciano
14/03/24 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	2-1 HT 1-0	Alianza Lima
21/08/23 Peru Liga 1	Cienciano	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza Lima

Standings · Peru Liga 1 · Liga 1 2026, Overall

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	31	19	8	4	52	23	65
2	Universitario de Deportes	30	16	8	6	52	34	56
3	FBC Melgar	31	15	9	7	54	35	54
4	Deportivo Garcilaso	31	15	6	10	47	33	51
5	Cusco FC	31	16	3	12	46	43	51
6	Cienciano	31	15	5	11	53	43	50
7	Alianza Atletico	32	14	7	11	49	46	49
8	Sporting Cristal	31	14	5	12	57	47	47
9	CD Los Chankas	31	13	7	11	39	51	46
10	Sport Huancayo	31	13	5	13	44	48	44
11	Juan Pablo II College	32	11	8	13	47	57	41
12	Sport Boys	30	11	8	11	34	33	37
13	Comerciantes Unidos	31	8	11	12	42	45	35
14	Atletico Grau	31	9	7	15	28	38	34
15	AD Tarma	31	7	9	15	33	45	29
16	Deportivo Moquegua	31	7	7	17	25	46	28
17	FC Cajamarca	31	7	7	17	44	60	26
18	UTC Cajamarca	31	5	8	18	36	55	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza Lima	Cienciano
Deportivo Moquegua	1-0 W	2-0 W
Atletico Grau	3-1 W	3-0 W
Cusco FC	2-1 W	1-2 L
AD Tarma	2-0 W	1-2 L
Deportivo Garcilaso	0-1 L	0-0 D
UTC Cajamarca	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Cienciano (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza Lima

WDLDLWWWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Sporting Cristal Peru Liga 1	2-2	2-3	5	6	L
25/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	9	2	W
18/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
12/10	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
19/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
13/09	Universitario de Deportes Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	8	5	L
06/09	Juan Pablo II College Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
30/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-1	0-1	10	6	L
23/08	FBC Melgar Peru Liga 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-0	8	2	W

Cienciano

DLLWLDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/10	Atletico Grau Peru Liga 1	0-0	3-0	7	3	W
25/10	Comerciantes Unidos Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-3	1	6	L
19/10	UTC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
08/10	Deportivo Moquegua Peru Liga 1	2-0	2-0	9	3	W
30/09	CD Los Chankas Peru Liga 1	0-0	1-1	10	6	D
23/09	AD Tarma Peru Liga 1	1-0	1-2	7	7	L
04/09	FC Cajamarca Peru Liga 1	3-2	5-2	3	2	W
31/08	Cusco FC Peru Liga 1	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
23/08	Sport Boys Peru Liga 1	1-3	1-5	8	2	L
17/08	Deportivo Garcilaso Peru Liga 1	0-0	0-0	6	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza Lima win (62%). Probabilities: Alianza Lima 62%, draw 23%, Cienciano 15%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Alianza Lima 1.93 · Cienciano 0.83), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza Lima vs Cienciano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.