Football · Panama LPF · 25/10, 22:00

Prediction: Herrera FC vs San Francisco FC

Team pages: Herrera FC · San Francisco FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Herrera FC1.1

San Francisco FC2.14

1X2

17% 23% 60%

Herrera FC Draw San Francisco FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Herrera FC 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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San Francisco FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Herrera FC 0–2–4 San Francisco FC (6 last)

San Francisco FC3-1Herrera FC
Herrera FC1-2San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC2-2Herrera FC
San Francisco FC1-0Herrera FC
Herrera FC0-1San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC1-1Herrera FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herrera FC 1428 · San Francisco FC 1556

	Herrera FC	Draw	San Francisco FC
Our model	18%	22%	60%
Market	17%	24%	59%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Francisco FC (rating 1428 vs 1556).
H2H favours San Francisco FC: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herrera FC	San Francisco FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.6	2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/20/70%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.6	1.8 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.5 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.25

X3.75

21.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.00 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 3.81
2	1.53 → 1.50▼	Pinn 1.59 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:08 +5’	5.00	3.75	1.53
19:10 +14’	4.20▼	3.60▼	1.67▲
12:15 +15’	5.25▲	3.75▲	1.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:56 +24’	4.67	3.72	1.64
18:57 +28’	4.56▼	3.68▼	1.66▲
11:06 +9’	5.44▲	3.99▲	1.52▼
11:51 +39’	5.48▲	4.02▲	1.51▼
14:07 +2’	4.92▼	3.81▼	1.59▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Herrera FC 0–2–4 San Francisco FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Herrera FC
26/04/26 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	1-2 HT 1-1	San Francisco FC
24/01/26 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Herrera FC
25/10/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Herrera FC
10/08/25 Panama LPF	Herrera FC	0-1 HT 0-1	San Francisco FC
12/04/25 Panama LPF	San Francisco FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Herrera FC

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	San Francisco FC	12	7	2	3	23	14	23
2	Veraguas CD	12	4	6	2	18	18	18
3	CA Independiente de la Chorrera	13	4	5	4	19	18	17
4	CD Universitario	13	2	5	6	10	14	11
5	Herrera FC	12	3	2	7	12	26	11
6	Union Cocle	12	1	2	9	10	24	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herrera FC	San Francisco FC
Alianza FC Panama	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Arabe Unido	1-2 L	1-2 L
Tauro FC	0-6 L	3-1 W
UMECIT	1-3 L	0-1 L
Plaza Amador	1-4 L	4-1 W
Sporting San Miguelito	1-3 L	2-0 W
CD Universitario	0-1 L	1-0 W
Veraguas CD	2-2 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Francisco FC (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herrera FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	1-2	3-2	3	2	W
04/10	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	2	10	W
26/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	1	6	L
20/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-2	0-6	9	7	L
13/09	UMECIT Panama LPF	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
06/09	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-2	1-4	1	3	L
31/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	4	7	L
23/08	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-2	2-2	5	6	D
08/08	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-2	1-3	3	6	L

San Francisco FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
03/10	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
27/09	Tauro FC Panama LPF	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
19/09	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
15/09	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	5	1	W
07/09	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	2-1	4-1	4	2	W
23/08	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	2-1	3-3	5	3	D
15/08	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
08/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herrera FC vs San Francisco FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Francisco FC win (60%). Probabilities: Herrera FC 17%, draw 23%, San Francisco FC 60%.

How many goals are expected in Herrera FC vs San Francisco FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Herrera FC 1.1 · San Francisco FC 2.14), with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Herrera FC vs San Francisco FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.