Football · Panama LPF · 26/10, 00:15

Prediction: Alianza FC Panama vs Sporting San Miguelito

Team pages: Alianza FC Panama · Sporting San Miguelito

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.44Total

Alianza FC Panama1.36

Sporting San Miguelito1.08

1X2

43% 29% 29%

Alianza FC Panama Draw Sporting San Miguelito

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Alianza FC Panama 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLDWLL

Sporting San Miguelito 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWDLLDWL

Head-to-head

Alianza FC Panama 2–1–3 Sporting San Miguelito (6 last)

Sporting San Miguelito0-0Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama3-2Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito1-0Alianza FC Panama
Sporting San Miguelito2-1Alianza FC Panama
Alianza FC Panama2-1Sporting San Miguelito
Sporting San Miguelito2-0Alianza FC Panama

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alianza FC Panama 1456 · Sporting San Miguelito 1480

	Alianza FC Panama	Draw	Sporting San Miguelito
Our model	42%	30%	28%
Market	43%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sporting San Miguelito: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alianza FC Panama	Sporting San Miguelito
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.7	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.2	4.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.72 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
04:52 +28’	2.10	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +196’	2.72	2.81	2.71

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alianza FC Panama 2–1–3 Sporting San Miguelito

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	0-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC Panama
03/05/26 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	3-2 HT 1-1	Sporting San Miguelito
12/02/26 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	1-0 HT 0-0	Alianza FC Panama
19/10/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-1 HT 0-0	Alianza FC Panama
28/07/25 Panama LPF	Alianza FC Panama	2-1 HT 2-1	Sporting San Miguelito
04/05/25 Panama LPF	Sporting San Miguelito	2-0 HT 1-0	Alianza FC Panama

Standings · Panama LPF · Apertura, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Plaza Amador	13	9	3	1	29	16	30
2	CD Arabe Unido	13	6	5	2	17	11	23
3	UMECIT	13	5	5	3	13	11	20
4	Tauro FC	13	5	2	6	18	14	17
5	Alianza FC Panama	12	3	5	4	12	12	14
6	Sporting San Miguelito	12	3	4	5	12	15	13

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alianza FC Panama	Sporting San Miguelito
UMECIT	1-2 L	1-0 W
Herrera FC	0-1 L	3-1 W
CA Independiente de la Chorrera	2-0 W	3-4 L
CD Universitario	0-0 D	1-1 D
Veraguas CD	1-2 L	1-1 D
San Francisco FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
Union Cocle	2-2 D	3-1 W
Tauro FC	2-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sporting San Miguelito (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alianza FC Panama

DLWDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
04/10	Herrera FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	7	10	L
29/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-0	2-0	6	6	W
20/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
14/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
07/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Union Cocle Panama LPF	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
25/08	Tauro FC Panama LPF	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
17/08	Plaza Amador Panama LPF	1-3	2-4	5	6	L
10/08	Sporting San Miguelito Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	1	4	D

Sporting San Miguelito

DWLWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Tauro FC Panama LPF	0-0	0-2	3	6	L
06/10	Union Cocle Panama LPF	3-1	3-1	2	6	W
28/09	Veraguas CD Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
21/09	CA Independiente de la Chorrera Panama LPF	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
15/09	San Francisco FC Panama LPF	0-1	0-2	4	1	L
06/09	CD Universitario Panama LPF	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
31/08	Herrera FC Panama LPF	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
22/08	CD Arabe Unido Panama LPF	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
16/08	UMECIT Panama LPF	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/08	Alianza FC Panama Panama LPF	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alianza FC Panama vs Sporting San Miguelito?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alianza FC Panama win (43%). Probabilities: Alianza FC Panama 43%, draw 29%, Sporting San Miguelito 29%.

How many goals are expected in Alianza FC Panama vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model expects 2.44 goals (Alianza FC Panama 1.36 · Sporting San Miguelito 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Alianza FC Panama vs Sporting San Miguelito?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.