Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 25/10, 23:30

Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno

Team pages: Sportivo San Lorenzo · Cerro Porteno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.71

Cerro Porteno1.93

1X2

12% 22% 66%

Sportivo San Lorenzo Draw Cerro Porteno

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo San Lorenzo 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Cerro Porteno 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo San Lorenzo 0–3–3 Cerro Porteno (6 last)

Cerro Porteno2-2Sportivo San Lorenzo
Cerro Porteno1-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
Cerro Porteno2-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo2-4Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno1-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-1Cerro Porteno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1413 · Cerro Porteno 1537

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Draw	Cerro Porteno
Our model	12%	23%	65%
Market	13%	21%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (rating 1413 vs 1537).
H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Cerro Porteno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.8	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.33

21.36

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Pinn 7.45 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.43
2	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +37’	7.00	4.33	1.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:43 +19’	6.80	4.20	1.45
21:25 +74’	7.11▲	4.30▲	1.42▼
23:21 +13’	7.44▲	4.40▲	1.40▼
15:52 +34’	7.45▲	4.43▲	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0–3–3 Cerro Porteno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/10/26 Paraguay Cup	Cerro Porteno	2-2 HT 2-2	Sportivo San Lorenzo
16/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
29/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
28/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-4 HT 0-2	Cerro Porteno
14/12/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Cerro Porteno	1-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
03/10/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 HT 0-0	Cerro Porteno

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Luqueno	2-3 L	3-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	1-1 D	1-2 L
Guarani Asuncion	1-1 D	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	0-0 D	3-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	0-3 L	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 L	2-2 D
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	0-2 L
Rubio Nu	1-3 L	1-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-3 L	1-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 7 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (7 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-3	2	5	L
10/10	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/10	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
28/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	9	1	D
20/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	6	4	L
11/09	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
05/09	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	5	7	L
01/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-3	5	7	L
28/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	2	L
24/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	2	L

Cerro Porteno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	2	4	D
11/10	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-0	9	4	W
06/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
27/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
19/09	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
12/09	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
07/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	3	0	W
03/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	3-1	3	2	W
30/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	2	D
23/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cerro Porteno win (66%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 12%, draw 22%, Cerro Porteno 66%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.71 · Cerro Porteno 1.93), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Cerro Porteno?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.