Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 04/11, 23:00
Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno
Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Cerro Porteno
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Libertad Asuncion1.3
Cerro Porteno1.28
1X2
Libertad Asuncion
Draw
Cerro Porteno
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Libertad Asuncion
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Cerro Porteno
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Libertad Asuncion
1–3–2
Cerro Porteno
(6 last)
- Cerro Porteno1-1Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion2-3Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno1-1Libertad Asuncion
- Cerro Porteno1-0Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion1-1Cerro Porteno
- Libertad Asuncion1-0Cerro Porteno
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1500 · Cerro Porteno 1535
| Libertad Asuncion | Draw | Cerro Porteno | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 29% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Asuncion | Cerro Porteno | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.3 | 1.6 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.6 | 3.1 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.2 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 1–3–2 Cerro Porteno
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 22/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Cerro Porteno |
| 25/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 23/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 31/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Cerro Porteno |
| 06/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Cerro Porteno |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Libertad Asuncion | Cerro Porteno |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Sportivo Luqueno | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| 2 de Mayo | 2-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Rubio Nu | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Nacional Asuncion | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 3 L | 5 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 24/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/10 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 05/10 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/09 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 9 | L |
| 19/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 11/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 02/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
Cerro Porteno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/10 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 11/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 06/10 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 3 | L |
| 27/09 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 19/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 12/09 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 07/09 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 03/09 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
3-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (36%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 36%, draw 29%, Cerro Porteno 35%.
How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.3 · Cerro Porteno 1.28), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Cerro Porteno?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.