Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 03/11, 23:30
Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Sportivo San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.45Total
Nacional Asuncion1.9
Sportivo San Lorenzo0.55
1X2
Nacional Asuncion
Draw
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Nacional Asuncion
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Sportivo San Lorenzo
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nacional Asuncion
3–3–0
Sportivo San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- Sportivo San Lorenzo0-3Nacional Asuncion
- Sportivo San Lorenzo0-0Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion1-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo1-1Nacional Asuncion
- Nacional Asuncion2-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo1-1Nacional Asuncion
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1574 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1439
| Nacional Asuncion | Draw | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1574 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 3-3-0.
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.4 | 0.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0 | 0.6 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.6 | 3.1 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.6 / 0.4 | 4.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 3–3–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 22/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 24/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 25/10/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Nacional Asuncion |
| 21/08/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Nacional Asuncion | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 08/02/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nacional Asuncion |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 10 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nacional Asuncion | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 3-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Guarani Asuncion | 2-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Recoleta | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Olimpia Asuncion | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Sportivo Ameliano | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 3-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Rubio Nu | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Cerro Porteno | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Libertad Asuncion | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 6 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 3 D 6 L |
Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (9 of 10 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nacional Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
3-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 24/10 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 17/10 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 13/10 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 07/10 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 26/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 13 | 2 | D |
| 18/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 13/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 07/09 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 02/09 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 25/10 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 10/10 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 03/10 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 28/09 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 20/09 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 11/09 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/09 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 01/09 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (70%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 70%, draw 21%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 10%.
How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.9 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.55), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.