Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 04/11, 23:00

Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani Asuncion

Team pages: Sportivo Ameliano · Guarani Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.12Total

Sportivo Ameliano1.01

Guarani Asuncion1.11

1X2

32% 30% 37%

Sportivo Ameliano Draw Guarani Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Ameliano 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Guarani Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Ameliano 1–3–2 Guarani Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion1-1Sportivo Ameliano
Guarani Asuncion1-0Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-0Guarani Asuncion
Sportivo Ameliano1-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion4-1Sportivo Ameliano
Guarani Asuncion1-3Sportivo Ameliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano 1450 · Guarani Asuncion 1553

	Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Guarani Asuncion
Our model	31%	32%	36%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.12 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guarani Asuncion (rating 1450 vs 1553).
H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Ameliano	Guarani Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.7	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.5	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.88

Under 2.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 2.84
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.31 ★
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +6’	2.70	3.10	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:58 +6’	2.84	3.31	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano 1–3–2 Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
16/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Ameliano
16/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
12/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
31/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	4-1 HT 2-1	Sportivo Ameliano
19/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-3 HT 0-3	Sportivo Ameliano

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Ameliano	Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta	0-3 L	2-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	2-3 L	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	2-2 D	1-1 D
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	1-0 W
Rubio Nu	1-2 L	2-0 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	0-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	1-1 D	2-2 D
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	1-1 D
Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 W	1-0 W
Sportivo Trinidense	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 4 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (5 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	3	2	L
25/10	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	4	6	L
18/10	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-2	1	4	D
12/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
06/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
26/09	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
19/09	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
11/09	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
06/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	2	W
02/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	6	4	L

Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/10	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
23/10	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	2	W
17/10	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-2	10	3	L
12/10	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	5	5	D
03/10	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
25/09	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
18/09	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
12/09	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
07/09	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	5	0	W
02/09	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	3	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guarani Asuncion win (37%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 32%, draw 30%, Guarani Asuncion 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model expects 2.12 goals (Sportivo Ameliano 1.01 · Guarani Asuncion 1.11), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.