Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 25/10, 13:30

Prediction: FC Kuressaare vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: FC Kuressaare · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

FC Kuressaare0.91

Paide Linnameeskond1.63

1X2

21% 25% 54%

FC Kuressaare Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kuressaare 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWLLDWWL

Paide Linnameeskond 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLWW

Head-to-head

FC Kuressaare 0–2–4 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond1-0FC Kuressaare
Paide Linnameeskond1-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-1Paide Linnameeskond
FC Kuressaare1-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond5-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare1-2Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kuressaare 1501 · Paide Linnameeskond 1559

	FC Kuressaare	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	20%	27%	53%
Market	22%	23%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1501 vs 1559).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kuressaare	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	2.6 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Bet365 3.70
2	1.61 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +3’	4.10	3.80	1.61
10:15 +2’	3.80▼	3.70▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kuressaare 0–2–4 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Kuressaare
31/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
03/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-1 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
04/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	1-1 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
16/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	5-1 HT 3-1	FC Kuressaare
13/08/25 Estonia Cup	FC Kuressaare	1-2 HT 0-1	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Kuressaare	Paide Linnameeskond
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-2 L	0-1 L
JK Trans Narva	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-0 W	2-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-0 D	1-2 L
JK Tammeka Tartu	1-3 L	2-1 W
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-2 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Kuressaare

WLDWLLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
14/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W

Paide Linnameeskond

WWLWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
14/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kuressaare vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnameeskond win (54%). Probabilities: FC Kuressaare 21%, draw 25%, Paide Linnameeskond 54%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kuressaare vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 2.54 goals (FC Kuressaare 0.91 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.63), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kuressaare vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.