Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 28/10, 17:00

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · FC Kuressaare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Parnu JK Vaprus1.63

FC Kuressaare1.56

1X2

39% 26% 36%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw FC Kuressaare

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Kuressaare 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 3–1–2 FC Kuressaare (6 last)

FC Kuressaare2-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-0FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare0-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus9-2FC Kuressaare
Parnu JK Vaprus0-1FC Kuressaare
FC Kuressaare2-1Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1451 · FC Kuressaare 1479

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	FC Kuressaare
Our model	39%	26%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Parnu JK Vaprus: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	FC Kuressaare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
00:17 +9’	2.30	3.50	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 3–1–2 FC Kuressaare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-2 HT 1-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
26/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Kuressaare
21/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	0-1 HT 0-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
31/01/26 Europe Friendlies	Parnu JK Vaprus	9-2 HT 1-2	FC Kuressaare
21/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Kuressaare
20/07/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Kuressaare	2-1 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	FC Kuressaare
Harju JK Laagri	0-2 L	0-0 D
JK Trans Narva	2-2 D	1-0 W
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	2-0 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Kuressaare (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
13/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L

FC Kuressaare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
14/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
11/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-0	11	4	D
13/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-3	6	1	L
09/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	4	2	L
05/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
29/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
22/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
16/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	3-1	3-2	3	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Parnu JK Vaprus win (39%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 39%, draw 26%, FC Kuressaare 36%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.63 · FC Kuressaare 1.56), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs FC Kuressaare?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.