Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 01/11, 11:30
Prediction: JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Kuressaare
Team pages: JK Nomme Kalju · FC Kuressaare
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
JK Nomme Kalju1.89
FC Kuressaare0.85
1X2
JK Nomme Kalju
Draw
FC Kuressaare
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
JK Nomme Kalju
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
FC Kuressaare
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
JK Nomme Kalju
5–1–0
FC Kuressaare
(6 last)
- FC Kuressaare0-0JK Nomme Kalju
- FC Kuressaare0-2JK Nomme Kalju
- JK Nomme Kalju4-0FC Kuressaare
- FC Kuressaare0-1JK Nomme Kalju
- JK Nomme Kalju2-0FC Kuressaare
- JK Nomme Kalju4-0FC Kuressaare
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · JK Nomme Kalju 1522 · FC Kuressaare 1471
| JK Nomme Kalju | Draw | FC Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Nomme Kalju (rating 1522 vs 1471).
- H2H favours JK Nomme Kalju: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| JK Nomme Kalju | FC Kuressaare | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.5 | 1 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 5.3 | 1.8 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme Kalju 5–1–0 FC Kuressaare
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Kuressaare | 0-0 HT 0-0 | JK Nomme Kalju |
| 17/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Kuressaare | 0-2 HT 0-1 | JK Nomme Kalju |
| 21/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme Kalju | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FC Kuressaare |
| 25/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | FC Kuressaare | 0-1 HT 0-0 | JK Nomme Kalju |
| 31/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme Kalju | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Kuressaare |
| 18/05/25 Estonia Meistriliiga | JK Nomme Kalju | 4-0 HT 2-0 | FC Kuressaare |
Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Levadia Tallinn | 35 | 28 | 6 | 1 | 95 | 27 | 90 |
| 2 | Paide Linnameeskond | 35 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 54 | 41 | 63 |
| 3 | FC Flora Tallinn | 34 | 19 | 1 | 14 | 64 | 49 | 58 |
| 4 | JK Nomme Kalju | 34 | 17 | 6 | 11 | 58 | 34 | 57 |
| 5 | JK Tammeka Tartu | 35 | 17 | 2 | 16 | 50 | 55 | 53 |
| 6 | Harju JK Laagri | 35 | 15 | 2 | 18 | 50 | 52 | 47 |
| 7 | JK Nomme United | 35 | 12 | 1 | 22 | 58 | 80 | 37 |
| 8 | Parnu JK Vaprus | 35 | 10 | 7 | 18 | 46 | 69 | 37 |
| 9 | FC Kuressaare | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 35 | 53 | 36 |
| 10 | JK Trans Narva | 34 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 26 | 76 | 20 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | JK Nomme Kalju | FC Kuressaare |
|---|---|---|
| Paide Linnameeskond | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| FC Flora Tallinn | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Parnu JK Vaprus | 2-2 D | 1-1 D |
| Harju JK Laagri | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| JK Tammeka Tartu | 3-1 W | 1-3 L |
| JK Trans Narva | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 2-3 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: JK Nomme Kalju (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
JK Nomme Kalju
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/10 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 17/10 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/10 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 2-2 | 0 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 12/09 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 08/09 | JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 05/09 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 2-3 | 7 | 6 | L |
FC Kuressaare
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 24/10 | Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/10 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 14/10 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/10 | FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 18/09 | Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 13/09 | JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 09/09 | FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga |
0-2 | 0-4 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 29/08 | Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Kuressaare?
According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme Kalju win (61%). Probabilities: JK Nomme Kalju 61%, draw 23%, FC Kuressaare 16%.
How many goals are expected in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Kuressaare?
The model expects 2.74 goals (JK Nomme Kalju 1.89 · FC Kuressaare 0.85), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in JK Nomme Kalju vs FC Kuressaare?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.