Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 28/10, 18:00

Prediction: Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Nomme Kalju

Team pages: Paide Linnameeskond · JK Nomme Kalju

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Paide Linnameeskond1.27

JK Nomme Kalju1.15

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Paide Linnameeskond Draw JK Nomme Kalju

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Paide Linnameeskond 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWLWW

JK Nomme Kalju 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLLWWLDL

Head-to-head

Paide Linnameeskond 2–4–0 JK Nomme Kalju (6 last)

JK Nomme Kalju1-1Paide Linnameeskond
JK Nomme Kalju1-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-0JK Nomme Kalju
Paide Linnameeskond2-1JK Nomme Kalju
JK Nomme Kalju1-1Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond1-1JK Nomme Kalju

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paide Linnameeskond 1579 · JK Nomme Kalju 1450

	Paide Linnameeskond	Draw	JK Nomme Kalju
Our model	38%	30%	32%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1579 vs 1450).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Nomme Kalju
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.4 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.5	2.6 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +3’	2.25	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Paide Linnameeskond 2–4–0 JK Nomme Kalju

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
14/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond
19/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme Kalju
14/02/26 Europe Friendlies	Paide Linnameeskond	2-1 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju
08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme Kalju	1-1 HT 1-1	Paide Linnameeskond
14/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	1-1 HT 1-0	JK Nomme Kalju

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Paide Linnameeskond	JK Nomme Kalju
JK Trans Narva	2-1 W	2-0 W
JK Tammeka Tartu	2-1 W	3-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-1 L	2-3 L
JK Nomme United	3-1 W	0-3 L
Parnu JK Vaprus	2-0 W	2-2 D
Harju JK Laagri	1-2 L	0-1 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paide Linnameeskond

WWLWLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
14/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-1	8	4	W
23/08	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	4-1	8	2	W

JK Nomme Kalju

WLLLLWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-3	6	6	L
13/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	2-2	0	4	D
10/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	9	3	L
20/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	4	W
12/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
08/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	5	7	L
05/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	1-2	8	1	L
30/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-3	7	6	L
22/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
16/08	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-1	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Nomme Kalju?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paide Linnameeskond win (39%). Probabilities: Paide Linnameeskond 39%, draw 28%, JK Nomme Kalju 33%.

How many goals are expected in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Paide Linnameeskond 1.27 · JK Nomme Kalju 1.15), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Paide Linnameeskond vs JK Nomme Kalju?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.