Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 27/10, 17:00

Prediction: FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu

Team pages: FC Levadia Tallinn · JK Tammeka Tartu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.92Total

FC Levadia Tallinn2.96

JK Tammeka Tartu0.96

1X2

78% 14% 8%

FC Levadia Tallinn Draw JK Tammeka Tartu

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Levadia Tallinn 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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JK Tammeka Tartu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu (6 last)

FC Levadia Tallinn6-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-2JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Levadia Tallinn3-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu2-2FC Levadia Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn4-0JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Levadia Tallinn 1680 · JK Tammeka Tartu 1506

	FC Levadia Tallinn	Draw	JK Tammeka Tartu
Our model	77%	14%	9%
Market	79%	13%	8%

Estimated total (ours) 3.92 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Levadia Tallinn (rating 1680 vs 1506).
H2H favours FC Levadia Tallinn: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.4	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.3	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.1 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.17

X7.00

212.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.93

2 (+2.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.88

Under 3.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.17 → 1.17	Bet365 1.17
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	12.00 → 12.00	Bet365 12.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +4’	1.17	7.00	12.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Levadia Tallinn 5–1–0 JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	6-0 HT 3-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
22/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
08/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-2 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
05/10/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
13/09/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Levadia Tallinn
26/04/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	FC Levadia Tallinn	4-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	33	19	1	13	63	47	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	33	15	2	16	48	48	47
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Levadia Tallinn	JK Tammeka Tartu
FC Kuressaare	2-0 W	3-1 W
FC Flora Tallinn	3-1 W	0-2 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-0 W	1-2 L
JK Trans Narva	1-1 D	2-0 W
JK Nomme Kalju	3-2 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Levadia Tallinn (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Levadia Tallinn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	0	W
15/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
11/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	2	8	W
20/09	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	11	4	D
17/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	6-0	9	4	W
12/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	4-0	8	4	W
09/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	3	2	W
06/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	3-2	10	6	W
21/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	4-0	5	2	W

JK Tammeka Tartu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
10/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Levadia Tallinn win (78%). Probabilities: FC Levadia Tallinn 78%, draw 14%, JK Tammeka Tartu 8%.

How many goals are expected in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model expects 3.92 goals (FC Levadia Tallinn 2.96 · JK Tammeka Tartu 0.96), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Levadia Tallinn vs JK Tammeka Tartu?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.