Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 31/10, 13:30

Prediction: Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond

Team pages: Parnu JK Vaprus · Paide Linnameeskond

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Parnu JK Vaprus1.21

Paide Linnameeskond1.74

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Parnu JK Vaprus Draw Paide Linnameeskond

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDDLLD

Paide Linnameeskond 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWWWL

Head-to-head

Parnu JK Vaprus 2–4 Paide Linnameeskond (6 last)

Paide Linnameeskond2-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Paide Linnameeskond3-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Paide Linnameeskond2-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus3-2Paide Linnameeskond
Paide Linnameeskond3-0Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus1-0Paide Linnameeskond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Parnu JK Vaprus 1434 · Paide Linnameeskond 1537

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Draw	Paide Linnameeskond
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paide Linnameeskond (rating 1434 vs 1537).
H2H favours Paide Linnameeskond: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Parnu JK Vaprus	Paide Linnameeskond
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 08:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.40▼	Pinn 3.42
X	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.43 ★
2	1.67 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.85

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:05 +7’	4.00	3.80	1.67
20:33 +4’	3.60▼	3.75▼	1.75▲
17:07 +12’	3.80▲	3.80▲	1.70▼
21:00 +20’	3.60▼	3.75▼	1.75▲
08:03 +3’	3.40▼	3.70▼	1.80▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:55 +17’	3.23	4.28	1.89
12:27 +46’	3.30▲	4.37▲	1.85▼
17:20	3.35▲	4.37	1.83▼
11:45 +7’	3.42▲	4.43▲	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Parnu JK Vaprus 2–0–4 Paide Linnameeskond

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
04/07/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	3-1 HT 2-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
06/05/26 Estonia Cup	Paide Linnameeskond	2-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
07/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	3-2 HT 0-0	Paide Linnameeskond
02/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Paide Linnameeskond	3-0 HT 1-0	Parnu JK Vaprus
30/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-0 HT 1-0	Paide Linnameeskond

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	34	27	6	1	91	24	87
2	Paide Linnameeskond	35	19	6	10	54	41	63
3	FC Flora Tallinn	34	19	1	14	64	49	58
4	JK Nomme Kalju	34	17	6	11	58	34	57
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	35	17	2	16	50	55	53
6	Harju JK Laagri	35	15	2	18	50	52	47
7	JK Nomme United	34	12	1	21	55	76	37
8	Parnu JK Vaprus	35	10	7	18	46	69	37
9	FC Kuressaare	34	10	6	18	35	53	36
10	JK Trans Narva	34	5	5	24	26	76	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Parnu JK Vaprus	Paide Linnameeskond
FC Kuressaare	1-1 D	1-0 W
JK Nomme United	2-4 L	3-1 W
Harju JK Laagri	0-2 L	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	2-2 D	0-2 L
JK Trans Narva	2-2 D	2-1 W
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Paide Linnameeskond (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Parnu JK Vaprus

WWLLLDDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
23/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-4	2	6	L
18/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
13/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W

Paide Linnameeskond

LWLWWLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
24/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
18/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
14/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
11/10	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	5	8	L
19/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	3-1	9	2	W
16/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
13/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	6	11	L
09/09	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	1	7	W
06/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Paide Linnameeskond win (49%). Probabilities: Parnu JK Vaprus 26%, draw 25%, Paide Linnameeskond 49%.

How many goals are expected in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Parnu JK Vaprus 1.21 · Paide Linnameeskond 1.74), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Parnu JK Vaprus vs Paide Linnameeskond?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.