Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Trans Narva

Team pages: JK Tammeka Tartu · JK Trans Narva

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

JK Tammeka Tartu1.58

JK Trans Narva1.25

1X2

44% 26% 29%

JK Tammeka Tartu Draw JK Trans Narva

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Tammeka Tartu 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLLWLL

JK Trans Narva 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLDDLL

Head-to-head

JK Tammeka Tartu 4–2 JK Trans Narva (6 last)

JK Trans Narva0-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu1-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva3-0JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Trans Narva1-2JK Tammeka Tartu
JK Tammeka Tartu2-0JK Trans Narva
JK Trans Narva4-1JK Tammeka Tartu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Tammeka Tartu 1515 · JK Trans Narva 1425

	JK Tammeka Tartu	Draw	JK Trans Narva
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours JK Tammeka Tartu (rating 1515 vs 1425).
H2H favours JK Tammeka Tartu: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Trans Narva
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1.2	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4	1.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.4	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.60 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:57 +17’	2.25	3.40	2.60
16:14 +2’	2.00▼	3.50▲	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Tammeka Tartu 4–0–2 JK Trans Narva

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	0-2 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
21/06/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Trans Narva
07/04/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	3-0 HT 2-0	JK Tammeka Tartu
17/01/26 Europe Friendlies	JK Trans Narva	1-2 HT 0-1	JK Tammeka Tartu
08/11/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Tammeka Tartu	2-0 HT 2-0	JK Trans Narva
09/08/25 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Trans Narva	4-1 HT 2-1	JK Tammeka Tartu

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	32	19	1	12	62	44	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	32	14	2	16	45	47	44
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Tammeka Tartu	JK Trans Narva
FC Flora Tallinn	0-2 L	2-2 D
Paide Linnameeskond	1-2 L	1-2 L
JK Nomme Kalju	1-3 L	0-2 L
FC Levadia Tallinn	0-6 L	1-1 D
FC Kuressaare	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Trans Narva (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Tammeka Tartu

WLWLWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
14/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
10/10	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
20/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	3	4	L
17/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
13/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	3-1	5	1	W
09/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
06/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-3	4	6	L
30/08	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-0	3	0	W

JK Trans Narva

DLLLDLDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
14/10	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
10/10	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	2-1	2-2	2	3	D
20/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
12/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
08/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	2-2	2-2	2	6	D
05/09	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-3	2	5	L
30/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	0	L
21/08	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
16/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	1-1	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Trans Narva?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Tammeka Tartu win (44%). Probabilities: JK Tammeka Tartu 44%, draw 26%, JK Trans Narva 29%.

How many goals are expected in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Trans Narva?

The model expects 2.83 goals (JK Tammeka Tartu 1.58 · JK Trans Narva 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Tammeka Tartu vs JK Trans Narva?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.