Football · Estonia Meistriliiga · 24/10, 13:30

Prediction: JK Nomme United vs Parnu JK Vaprus

Team pages: JK Nomme United · Parnu JK Vaprus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.77Total

JK Nomme United2.01

Parnu JK Vaprus1.75

1X2

43% 24% 33%

JK Nomme United Draw Parnu JK Vaprus

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

JK Nomme United 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLLLLW

Parnu JK Vaprus 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLLDDL

Head-to-head

JK Nomme United 3–3 Parnu JK Vaprus (6 last)

Parnu JK Vaprus1-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United3-2Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus2-3JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United7-1Parnu JK Vaprus
Parnu JK Vaprus7-0JK Nomme United
JK Nomme United0-2Parnu JK Vaprus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · JK Nomme United 1457 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1433

	JK Nomme United	Draw	Parnu JK Vaprus
Our model	44%	23%	33%
Market	43%	24%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.77 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	JK Nomme United	Parnu JK Vaprus
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.6	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.70

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:10 +3’	2.10	3.70	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · JK Nomme United 3–0–3 Parnu JK Vaprus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	1-0 HT 0-0	JK Nomme United
02/09/26 Estonia Cup	JK Nomme United	3-2 HT 3-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
02/05/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	Parnu JK Vaprus	2-3 HT 1-1	JK Nomme United
14/03/26 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	7-1 HT 2-1	Parnu JK Vaprus
12/02/25 Europe Friendlies	Parnu JK Vaprus	7-0 HT 5-0	JK Nomme United
19/10/24 Estonia Meistriliiga	JK Nomme United	0-2 HT 0-1	Parnu JK Vaprus

Standings · Estonia Meistriliiga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Levadia Tallinn	32	25	6	1	87	22	81
2	FC Flora Tallinn	32	19	1	12	62	44	58
3	Paide Linnameeskond	32	17	6	9	52	39	57
4	JK Nomme Kalju	32	15	6	11	54	33	51
5	JK Tammeka Tartu	32	15	2	15	42	51	47
6	Harju JK Laagri	32	14	2	16	45	47	44
7	Parnu JK Vaprus	32	10	6	16	43	63	36
8	FC Kuressaare	32	10	5	17	34	51	35
9	JK Nomme United	32	10	1	21	50	74	31
10	JK Trans Narva	32	5	5	22	25	70	20

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	JK Nomme United	Parnu JK Vaprus
JK Nomme Kalju	3-0 W	2-2 D
Harju JK Laagri	0-2 L	0-2 L
Paide Linnameeskond	1-3 L	0-2 L
FC Flora Tallinn	2-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: JK Nomme United (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

JK Nomme United

LLLLWLLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	3-0	3-0	7	6	W
13/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
10/10	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	0-4	5	5	L
19/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-3	3	2	L
12/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-3	3	1	L
08/09	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	2-1	5	7	W
05/09	Parnu JK Vaprus Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
29/08	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	1-2	2	3	L
23/08	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
14/08	JK Tammeka Tartu Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Parnu JK Vaprus

LDWWLLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
13/10	JK Nomme Kalju Estonia Meistriliiga	1-0	2-2	6	4	D
10/10	JK Trans Narva Estonia Meistriliiga	1-2	2-2	4	3	D
20/09	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	2-3	1	0	L
16/09	Paide Linnameeskond Estonia Meistriliiga	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
12/09	FC Levadia Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-3	0-4	5	4	L
09/09	Harju JK Laagri Estonia Meistriliiga	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
05/09	JK Nomme United Estonia Meistriliiga	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
29/08	FC Kuressaare Estonia Meistriliiga	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
23/08	FC Flora Tallinn Estonia Meistriliiga	0-2	1-2	1	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in JK Nomme United vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

According to our model, the most likely result is a JK Nomme United win (43%). Probabilities: JK Nomme United 43%, draw 24%, Parnu JK Vaprus 33%.

How many goals are expected in JK Nomme United vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model expects 3.77 goals (JK Nomme United 2.01 · Parnu JK Vaprus 1.75), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in JK Nomme United vs Parnu JK Vaprus?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.