Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 24/10, 17:00

Prediction: FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Mladost DG

Team pages: FK Mornar Bar · OFK Mladost DG

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

FK Mornar Bar2.07

OFK Mladost DG0.93

1X2

62% 22% 15%

FK Mornar Bar Draw OFK Mladost DG

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Mornar Bar 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDWLLDDW

OFK Mladost DG 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWLLDD

Head-to-head

FK Mornar Bar 6–0 OFK Mladost DG (6 last)

OFK Mladost DG1-5FK Mornar Bar
OFK Mladost DG2-3FK Mornar Bar
OFK Mladost DG1-2FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar3-0OFK Mladost DG
OFK Mladost DG1-3FK Mornar Bar
FK Mornar Bar2-1OFK Mladost DG

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Mornar Bar 1583 · OFK Mladost DG 1469

	FK Mornar Bar	Draw	OFK Mladost DG
Our model	63%	22%	15%
Market	62%	23%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Mornar Bar (rating 1583 vs 1469).
H2H favours FK Mornar Bar: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Mornar Bar	OFK Mladost DG
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.9	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:52 +25’	1.44	4.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Mornar Bar 6–0–0 OFK Mladost DG

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/10/26 Europe Friendlies	OFK Mladost DG	1-5 HT 0-2	FK Mornar Bar
16/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	2-3 HT 2-2	FK Mornar Bar
26/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-2 HT 1-2	FK Mornar Bar
01/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	3-0 HT 0-0	OFK Mladost DG
26/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	OFK Mladost DG	1-3 HT 0-2	FK Mornar Bar
24/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Mornar Bar	2-1 HT 1-1	OFK Mladost DG

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	11	6	2	3	20	14	20
2	Buducnost Podgorica	11	5	3	3	12	7	18
3	FK Mornar Bar	11	4	5	2	14	11	17
4	Sutjeska Niksic	10	4	3	3	13	7	15
5	FK Decic Tuzi	10	4	3	3	10	8	15
6	FK Bokelj	10	4	3	3	8	9	15
7	OFK Mladost DG	11	3	3	5	10	17	12
8	FK Jezero	11	2	5	4	12	18	11
9	OFK Petrovac	10	1	5	4	9	12	8
10	FK Arsenal	9	1	4	4	6	11	7

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Mornar Bar	OFK Mladost DG
FK Arsenal	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Jezero	3-3 D	0-0 D
FK Decic Tuzi	1-1 D	2-0 W
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	0-1 L	2-2 D
Sutjeska Niksic	0-1 L	1-5 L
FK Bokelj	2-0 W	0-3 L
OFK Petrovac	1-1 D	0-0 D
Buducnost Podgorica	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Mornar Bar (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Mornar Bar

DWWDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
08/10	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	4	7	D
20/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
14/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
08/09	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	2	L
03/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
29/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
21/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	2-1	9	5	W
16/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-2	7	2	W
07/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

OFK Mladost DG

LLDLWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
08/10	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	2-2	1	5	D
20/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-3	0-3	8	2	L
14/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
10/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
05/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
28/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	1-5	6	3	L
22/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
16/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-3	10	2	L
09/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Mladost DG?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Mornar Bar win (62%). Probabilities: FK Mornar Bar 62%, draw 22%, OFK Mladost DG 15%.

How many goals are expected in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Mladost DG?

The model expects 3 goals (FK Mornar Bar 2.07 · OFK Mladost DG 0.93), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Mornar Bar vs OFK Mladost DG?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.