Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 29/10, 14:00

Prediction: Sutjeska Niksic vs FK Jezero

Team pages: Sutjeska Niksic · FK Jezero

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

Sutjeska Niksic1.94

FK Jezero0.62

1X2

68% 21% 11%

Sutjeska Niksic Draw FK Jezero

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Sutjeska Niksic 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWWDWD

FK Jezero 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Sutjeska Niksic 1–3–2 FK Jezero (6 last)

FK Jezero0-0Sutjeska Niksic
Sutjeska Niksic1-1FK Jezero
FK Jezero1-1Sutjeska Niksic
FK Jezero1-0Sutjeska Niksic
Sutjeska Niksic1-0FK Jezero
FK Jezero2-1Sutjeska Niksic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sutjeska Niksic 1529 · FK Jezero 1479

	Sutjeska Niksic	Draw	FK Jezero
Our model	68%	22%	10%
Market	69%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sutjeska Niksic (rating 1529 vs 1479).
H2H favours FK Jezero: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sutjeska Niksic	FK Jezero
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	0/80/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.6	0.9 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.50

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +3’	1.30	4.50	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sutjeska Niksic 1–3–2 FK Jezero

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	0-0 HT 0-0	Sutjeska Niksic
26/04/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	Sutjeska Niksic	1-1 HT 0-0	FK Jezero
01/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	1-1 HT 1-1	Sutjeska Niksic
10/02/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Jezero	1-0 HT 0-0	Sutjeska Niksic
26/10/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	Sutjeska Niksic	1-0 HT 0-0	FK Jezero
24/08/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Jezero	2-1 HT 1-0	Sutjeska Niksic

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	12	6	3	3	21	15	21
2	FK Mornar Bar	12	5	5	2	18	12	20
3	Buducnost Podgorica	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
4	FK Bokelj	11	5	3	3	10	9	18
5	Sutjeska Niksic	11	4	4	3	14	8	16
6	FK Decic Tuzi	11	4	3	4	10	10	15
7	OFK Mladost DG	12	3	3	6	11	21	12
8	OFK Petrovac	11	2	5	4	11	13	11
9	FK Jezero	12	2	5	5	13	20	11
10	FK Arsenal	10	1	5	4	9	14	8

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sutjeska Niksic	FK Jezero
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-1 D	1-4 L
FK Bokelj	4-0 W	1-1 D
Buducnost Podgorica	0-0 D	0-3 L
FK Decic Tuzi	2-0 W	1-2 L
FK Mornar Bar	1-0 W	3-3 D
OFK Petrovac	0-0 D	1-2 L
OFK Mladost DG	5-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Sutjeska Niksic (7 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sutjeska Niksic

LLDWDWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
19/10	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	4-0	0	4	W
10/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
13/09	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	4	6	W
08/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
04/09	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	5	8	D
28/08	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	2-0	5-1	7	3	W
22/08	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-2	1-4	7	4	L
09/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L

FK Jezero

LDLWLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
18/10	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
08/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	3-3	7	7	D
20/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-4	3	5	L
15/09	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/09	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	5-2	4	4	W
30/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	0	3	L
22/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
16/08	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-3	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sutjeska Niksic vs FK Jezero?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sutjeska Niksic win (68%). Probabilities: Sutjeska Niksic 68%, draw 21%, FK Jezero 11%.

How many goals are expected in Sutjeska Niksic vs FK Jezero?

The model expects 2.56 goals (Sutjeska Niksic 1.94 · FK Jezero 0.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sutjeska Niksic vs FK Jezero?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.