Football · Montenegro Prva Liga · 28/10, 13:00

Prediction: FK Arsenal vs FK Bokelj

Team pages: FK Arsenal · FK Bokelj

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

FK Arsenal0.97

FK Bokelj1.06

1X2

32% 31% 37%

FK Arsenal Draw FK Bokelj

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Arsenal 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DDDDLLLWLD

FK Bokelj 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDLWDWLW

Head-to-head

FK Arsenal 2–1–3 FK Bokelj (6 last)

FK Bokelj0-0FK Arsenal
FK Bokelj3-1FK Arsenal
FK Bokelj3-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal1-0FK Bokelj
FK Bokelj2-0FK Arsenal
FK Arsenal2-1FK Bokelj

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Arsenal 1448 · FK Bokelj 1528

	FK Arsenal	Draw	FK Bokelj
Our model	31%	33%	36%
Market	33%	29%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Bokelj (rating 1448 vs 1528).
H2H favours FK Bokelj: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Arsenal	FK Bokelj
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.4	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	1.3 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +11’	2.70	3.10	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:04 +2’	3.37	3.04	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Arsenal 2–1–3 FK Bokelj

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/08/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	0-0 HT 0-0	FK Arsenal
08/07/26 Europe Friendlies	FK Bokelj	3-1 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
16/05/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	3-0 HT 1-0	FK Arsenal
15/03/26 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	1-0 HT 1-0	FK Bokelj
22/11/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Bokelj	2-0 HT 2-0	FK Arsenal
17/09/25 Montenegro Prva Liga	FK Arsenal	2-1 HT 2-0	FK Bokelj

Standings · Montenegro Prva Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	12	6	3	3	21	15	21
2	FK Mornar Bar	12	5	5	2	18	12	20
3	Buducnost Podgorica	12	5	4	3	15	10	19
4	FK Bokelj	11	5	3	3	10	9	18
5	Sutjeska Niksic	11	4	4	3	14	8	16
6	FK Decic Tuzi	11	4	3	4	10	10	15
7	OFK Mladost DG	12	3	3	6	11	21	12
8	OFK Petrovac	11	2	5	4	11	13	11
9	FK Jezero	12	2	5	5	13	20	11
10	FK Arsenal	10	1	5	4	9	14	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Arsenal	FK Bokelj
Buducnost Podgorica	3-3 D	0-0 D
FK Mornar Bar	1-2 L	0-2 L
OFK Mladost DG	0-1 L	3-0 W
FK Jezero	2-5 L	1-1 D
Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj	1-2 L	2-1 W
FK Decic Tuzi	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FK Bokelj (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Arsenal

DDDDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	3-3	5	3	D
17/10	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
14/09	OFK Petrovac Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
10/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
05/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	2-2	2-5	0	4	L
30/08	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	1-1	1-2	8	7	L
23/08	FK Bokelj Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
16/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	6	1	D
07/08	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
02/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

FK Bokelj

WLDDLWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/10	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	2-0	2	6	W
19/10	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	0-1	0-4	5	4	L
20/09	OFK Mladost DG Montenegro Prva Liga	3-0	3-0	2	2	W
15/09	FK Jezero Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/09	Otrant-Olympic Ulcinj Montenegro Prva Liga	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
03/09	FK Mornar Bar Montenegro Prva Liga	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
30/08	Buducnost Podgorica Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
23/08	FK Arsenal Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
17/08	FK Decic Tuzi Montenegro Prva Liga	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
09/08	Sutjeska Niksic Montenegro Prva Liga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Arsenal vs FK Bokelj?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FK Bokelj win (37%). Probabilities: FK Arsenal 32%, draw 31%, FK Bokelj 37%.

How many goals are expected in FK Arsenal vs FK Bokelj?

The model expects 2.03 goals (FK Arsenal 0.97 · FK Bokelj 1.06), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Arsenal vs FK Bokelj?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.