Football · Latvia Virsliga · 26/10, 17:00

Prediction: SC Grobinas vs Riga FC

Team pages: SC Grobinas · Riga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

SC Grobinas0.68

Riga FC2.41

1X2

8% 16% 76%

SC Grobinas Draw Riga FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 13%

Recent form · 10 last

SC Grobinas 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLDDLW

Riga FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDLDDWWWW

Head-to-head

SC Grobinas 0–1–5 Riga FC (6 last)

Riga FC4-0SC Grobinas
Riga FC2-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-3Riga FC
SC Grobinas1-1Riga FC
Riga FC2-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas0-2Riga FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SC Grobinas 1447 · Riga FC 1605

	SC Grobinas	Draw	Riga FC
Our model	8%	17%	75%
Market	9%	15%	76%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1447 vs 1605).
H2H favours Riga FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SC Grobinas	Riga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.1	3.5 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

110.00

X6.00

21.18

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2)1.85

2 (-2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
2	1.18 → 1.18	Bet365 1.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +9’	10.00	6.00	1.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SC Grobinas 0–1–5 Riga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
29/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-0 HT 1-0	SC Grobinas
18/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-3 HT 0-3	Riga FC
02/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-1 HT 0-1	Riga FC
10/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	2-0 HT 0-0	SC Grobinas
14/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-2 HT 0-2	Riga FC

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	33	26	5	2	81	24	83
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90	31	79
3	FK Auda	33	19	7	7	53	34	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46	46	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39	37	45
6	SK Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32	47	38
7	FK Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34	56	32
8	SC Grobinas	33	6	11	16	25	56	29
9	Tukums 2000	33	5	9	19	44	65	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33	81	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SC Grobinas	Riga FC
Ogre United	3-2 W	4-1 W
SK Super Nova	1-2 L	2-1 W
Tukums 2000	1-1 D	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Auda	0-1 L	2-2 D
BFC Daugavpils	1-0 W	1-1 D
FK Liepaja	1-3 L	2-3 L
RFS	1-6 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SC Grobinas

DLLLWLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-2	9	3	W
10/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
20/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L
27/07	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-2	2-2	7	4	D

Riga FC

WWDLDDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
10/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	11	8	W
11/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W
02/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	4-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SC Grobinas vs Riga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC win (76%). Probabilities: SC Grobinas 8%, draw 16%, Riga FC 76%.

How many goals are expected in SC Grobinas vs Riga FC?

The model expects 3.09 goals (SC Grobinas 0.68 · Riga FC 2.41), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SC Grobinas vs Riga FC?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.