Football · Latvia Virsliga · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: FK Liepaja vs SK Super Nova

Team pages: FK Liepaja · SK Super Nova

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

FK Liepaja1.79

SK Super Nova0.8

1X2

61% 23% 16%

FK Liepaja Draw SK Super Nova

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 12%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Liepaja 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDLWD

SK Super Nova 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLLWLLL

Head-to-head

FK Liepaja 4–2 SK Super Nova (6 last)

SK Super Nova1-2FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja2-1SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-2FK Liepaja
SK Super Nova3-0FK Liepaja
FK Liepaja0-3SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-3FK Liepaja

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Liepaja 1520 · SK Super Nova 1453

	FK Liepaja	Draw	SK Super Nova
Our model	60%	25%	15%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Liepaja (rating 1520 vs 1453).
H2H favours FK Liepaja: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Liepaja	SK Super Nova
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	0.6 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.4	2.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.44▲	Bet365 1.44
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.54
2	5.50 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.72 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:53 +4’	1.42	4.33	5.50
23:43 +12’	1.48▲	4.20▼	5.00▼
17:55 +7’	1.44▼	4.20	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +4’	1.43	4.54	6.72

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Liepaja 4–0–2 SK Super Nova

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 1-0	FK Liepaja
12/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	2-1 HT 2-1	SK Super Nova
23/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 0-2	FK Liepaja
09/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	3-0 HT 2-0	FK Liepaja
25/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Liepaja	0-3 HT 0-1	SK Super Nova
17/06/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-3 HT 0-3	FK Liepaja

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	34	27	5	2	84	24	86
2	Riga FC	34	25	7	2	95	33	82
3	FK Auda	34	20	7	7	57	35	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40	37	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46	46	47
6	SK Super Nova	34	11	5	18	32	50	38
7	FK Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34	57	32
8	SC Grobinas	34	6	11	17	27	61	29
9	Tukums 2000	34	5	10	19	44	65	25
10	Ogre United	34	4	6	24	34	85	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Liepaja	SK Super Nova
Tukums 2000	0-0 D	1-0 W
FK Jelgava	3-0 W	1-0 W
FK Auda	2-3 L	1-1 D
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	0-0 D
Ogre United	2-2 D	0-1 L
RFS	0-0 D	0-3 L
Riga FC	3-2 W	1-2 L
SC Grobinas	3-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Liepaja (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Liepaja

WWLWDDDLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	9	4	D
18/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
12/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-3	3	4	L
19/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
11/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	11	5	D
07/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
31/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	2-1	3-2	2	5	W
25/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
21/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-1	4	4	W
09/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	6	4	W

SK Super Nova

DDWWLLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-3	5	1	L
18/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
15/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
10/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Liepaja vs SK Super Nova?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Liepaja win (61%). Probabilities: FK Liepaja 61%, draw 23%, SK Super Nova 16%.

How many goals are expected in FK Liepaja vs SK Super Nova?

The model expects 2.59 goals (FK Liepaja 1.79 · SK Super Nova 0.8), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Liepaja vs SK Super Nova?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.