Prediction: BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000
Team pages: BFC Daugavpils · Tukums 2000
- BFC Daugavpils2-0Tukums 2000
- Tukums 20001-1BFC Daugavpils
- Tukums 20001-1BFC Daugavpils
- Tukums 20000-1BFC Daugavpils
- BFC Daugavpils1-2Tukums 2000
- Tukums 20000-0BFC Daugavpils
| BFC Daugavpils | Draw | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 26% | 16% |
| Market | 60% | 22% | 18% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BFC Daugavpils (rating 1547 vs 1443).
- H2H favours BFC Daugavpils: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BFC Daugavpils | Tukums 2000 | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.7 | 0.6 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.1 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/70/0% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.3 | 1.5 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Daugavpils 2–3–1 Tukums 2000
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/26 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Tukums 2000 |
| 12/06/26 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 1-1 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 21/04/26 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 1-1 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 30/08/25 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 0-1 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
| 21/06/25 Latvia Virsliga | BFC Daugavpils | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Tukums 2000 |
| 30/04/25 Latvia Virsliga | Tukums 2000 | 0-0 HT 0-0 | BFC Daugavpils |
Standings · Latvia Virsliga
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RFS | 34 | 27 | 5 | 2 | 84 | 24 | 86 |
| 2 | Riga FC | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 95 | 33 | 82 |
| 3 | FK Auda | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 57 | 35 | 67 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 40 | 37 | 48 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 46 | 46 | 47 |
| 6 | SK Super Nova | 34 | 11 | 5 | 18 | 32 | 50 | 38 |
| 7 | FK Jelgava | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 34 | 57 | 32 |
| 8 | SC Grobinas | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 27 | 61 | 29 |
| 9 | Tukums 2000 | 34 | 5 | 10 | 19 | 44 | 65 | 25 |
| 10 | Ogre United | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 34 | 85 | 18 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BFC Daugavpils | Tukums 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| FK Jelgava | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| FK Auda | 2-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Ogre United | 2-1 W | 2-1 W |
| FK Liepaja | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| RFS | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Riga FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| SC Grobinas | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| SK Super Nova | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 3 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: BFC Daugavpils (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BFC Daugavpils
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 19/10 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 11/10 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 19/09 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/09 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 29/08 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 22/08 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 08/08 | Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 01/08 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 5 | W |
Tukums 2000
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 19/10 | RFS Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 10/10 | Riga FC Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 20/09 | SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/09 | SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Ogre United Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 29/08 | FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/08 | FK Auda Latvia Virsliga |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000?
According to our model, the most likely result is a BFC Daugavpils win (59%). Probabilities: BFC Daugavpils 59%, draw 24%, Tukums 2000 17%.
How many goals are expected in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000?
The model expects 2.47 goals (BFC Daugavpils 1.69 · Tukums 2000 0.77), with a 60% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums 2000?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.