Football · Latvia Virsliga · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: RFS vs SC Grobinas

Team pages: RFS · SC Grobinas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

RFS2.91

SC Grobinas0.91

1X2

82% 12% 7%

RFS Draw SC Grobinas

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 9%

Recent form · 10 last

RFS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWWW

SC Grobinas 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLDDLWL

Head-to-head

RFS 6–0 SC Grobinas (6 last)

RFS6-1SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas1-3RFS
SC Grobinas0-1RFS
RFS5-0SC Grobinas
SC Grobinas2-3RFS
RFS6-0SC Grobinas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · RFS 1596 · SC Grobinas 1436

	RFS	Draw	SC Grobinas
Our model	77%	14%	8%
Market	85%	9%	6%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1596 vs 1436).
H2H favours RFS: 6-0-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	RFS	SC Grobinas
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.8	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.2	2.2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.10

X10.00

217.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.5)1.85

2 (+2.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.11 → 1.10▼	Bet365 1.10
X	9.50 → 10.00▲	Pinn 10.43
2	17.00 → 17.00	Pinn 20.08 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:53 +3’	1.11	9.50	17.00
13:36 +3’	1.10▼	10.00▲	17.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +4’	1.08	10.86	21.19
17:22 +40’	1.09▲	10.43▼	20.08▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · RFS 6–0–0 SC Grobinas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	6-1 HT 4-0	SC Grobinas
13/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	1-3 HT 0-2	RFS
22/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	0-1 HT 0-0	RFS
26/10/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	5-0 HT 3-0	SC Grobinas
03/08/25 Latvia Virsliga	SC Grobinas	2-3 HT 1-2	RFS
31/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	6-0 HT 4-0	SC Grobinas

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	34	27	5	2	84	24	86
2	Riga FC	34	25	7	2	95	33	82
3	FK Auda	34	20	7	7	57	35	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40	37	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46	46	47
6	SK Super Nova	34	11	5	18	32	50	38
7	FK Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34	57	32
8	SC Grobinas	34	6	11	17	27	61	29
9	Tukums 2000	34	5	10	19	44	65	25
10	Ogre United	34	4	6	24	34	85	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	RFS	SC Grobinas
SK Super Nova	3-0 W	1-2 L
Tukums 2000	2-0 W	1-1 D
FK Jelgava	4-2 W	0-0 D
FK Auda	1-1 D	0-1 L
BFC Daugavpils	2-1 W	1-0 W
FK Liepaja	0-0 D	1-3 L
Ogre United	3-0 W	3-2 W
Riga FC	3-3 D	2-5 L
Record vs common	5 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

RFS

WDWDWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
15/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	4-2	7	5	W
20/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
13/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
07/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
23/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	6-1	6	2	W

SC Grobinas

LLLWLDDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-4	2-5	1	6	L
17/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-2	9	3	W
10/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
20/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
12/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
06/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
29/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
21/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
10/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-4	1-6	1	2	L
02/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-4	3	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a RFS win (82%). Probabilities: RFS 82%, draw 12%, SC Grobinas 7%.

How many goals are expected in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

The model expects 3.81 goals (RFS 2.91 · SC Grobinas 0.91), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in RFS vs SC Grobinas?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.