Football · Latvia Virsliga · 25/10, 17:00

Prediction: SK Super Nova vs RFS

Team pages: SK Super Nova · RFS

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

SK Super Nova0.5

RFS2.46

1X2

6% 14% 80%

SK Super Nova Draw RFS

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 16%

Recent form · 10 last

SK Super Nova 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWWLLWLL

RFS 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWWW

Head-to-head

SK Super Nova 0–6 RFS (6 last)

RFS4-0SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova0-1RFS
SK Super Nova1-2RFS
RFS2-0SK Super Nova
RFS5-2SK Super Nova
SK Super Nova1-3RFS

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SK Super Nova 1435 · RFS 1610

	SK Super Nova	Draw	RFS
Our model	5%	15%	80%
Market	6%	13%	81%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours RFS (rating 1435 vs 1610).
H2H favours RFS: 6-0-0.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SK Super Nova	RFS
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.2	2.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	3.9 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

115.00

X7.00

21.13

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.25)1.90

2 (-2.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 12:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	15.00 → 17.00▲	Bet365 17.00
X	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
2	1.13 → 1.13	Bet365 1.13

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +5’	15.00	7.00	1.13
17:16 +9’	15.00	7.00	1.14▲
12:20 +8’	17.00▲	7.00	1.13▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 4 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SK Super Nova 0–0–6 RFS

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/10/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	4-0 HT 3-0	SK Super Nova
16/08/26 Latvia Cup	SK Super Nova	0-1 HT 0-1	RFS
29/05/26 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-2 HT 1-1	RFS
18/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	RFS	2-0 HT 0-0	SK Super Nova
14/01/26 Europe Friendlies	RFS	5-2 HT 1-1	SK Super Nova
02/11/25 Latvia Virsliga	SK Super Nova	1-3 HT 0-1	RFS

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	33	26	5	2	81	24	83
2	Riga FC	33	24	7	2	90	31	79
3	FK Auda	33	19	7	7	53	34	64
4	FK Liepaja	33	13	7	13	46	46	46
5	BFC Daugavpils	33	12	9	12	39	37	45
6	SK Super Nova	33	11	5	17	32	47	38
7	FK Jelgava	33	8	8	17	34	56	32
8	SC Grobinas	33	6	11	16	25	56	29
9	Tukums 2000	33	5	9	19	44	65	24
10	Ogre United	33	4	6	23	33	81	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SK Super Nova	RFS
Riga FC	1-2 L	3-3 D
SC Grobinas	2-1 W	6-1 W
Ogre United	0-1 L	3-0 W
Tukums 2000	1-0 W	2-0 W
FK Jelgava	1-0 W	4-2 W
FK Auda	1-1 D	1-1 D
BFC Daugavpils	0-0 D	2-1 W
FK Liepaja	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: RFS (7 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SK Super Nova

LDDWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
15/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-3	0-4	3	2	L
10/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
20/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
15/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	0	8	L
10/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
05/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
29/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
09/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	2	4	L

RFS

WWDWDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	0-0	2-0	11	1	W
15/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	3-0	4-0	9	2	W
11/10	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	0-1	4-2	7	5	W
20/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	11	6	D
13/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
07/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
30/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	4	W
23/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-3	4	4	D
10/08	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	6-1	6	2	W
27/07	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SK Super Nova vs RFS?

According to our model, the most likely result is an RFS win (80%). Probabilities: SK Super Nova 6%, draw 14%, RFS 80%.

How many goals are expected in SK Super Nova vs RFS?

The model expects 2.96 goals (SK Super Nova 0.5 · RFS 2.46), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SK Super Nova vs RFS?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.