Football · Latvia Virsliga · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: FK Auda vs FK Jelgava

Team pages: FK Auda · FK Jelgava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

FK Auda2.01

FK Jelgava0.95

1X2

61% 22% 17%

FK Auda Draw FK Jelgava

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Auda 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWDWLW

FK Jelgava 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDLLLL

Head-to-head

FK Auda 3–2–1 FK Jelgava (6 last)

FK Jelgava0-1FK Auda
FK Auda1-1FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava2-3FK Auda
FK Jelgava1-1FK Auda
FK Auda2-0FK Jelgava
FK Jelgava3-1FK Auda

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Auda 1571 · FK Jelgava 1437

	FK Auda	Draw	FK Jelgava
Our model	61%	23%	16%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Auda (rating 1571 vs 1437).
H2H favours FK Auda: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Auda	FK Jelgava
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.7	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.45

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.45▲	Pinn 1.49
X	4.33 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.39
2	5.75 → 5.25▼	Pinn 5.78 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:30 +27’	1.40	4.33	5.75
21:06 +16’	1.45▲	4.20▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +4’	1.49	4.39	5.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Auda 3–2–1 FK Jelgava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	0-1 HT 0-1	FK Auda
13/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Jelgava
21/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	2-3 HT 2-1	FK Auda
27/09/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	1-1 HT 0-1	FK Auda
05/07/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Auda	2-0 HT 1-0	FK Jelgava
15/05/25 Latvia Virsliga	FK Jelgava	3-1 HT 2-1	FK Auda

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	34	27	5	2	84	24	86
2	Riga FC	34	25	7	2	95	33	82
3	FK Auda	34	20	7	7	57	35	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40	37	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46	46	47
6	SK Super Nova	34	11	5	18	32	50	38
7	FK Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34	57	32
8	SC Grobinas	34	6	11	17	27	61	29
9	Tukums 2000	34	5	10	19	44	65	25
10	Ogre United	34	4	6	24	34	85	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Auda	FK Jelgava
Ogre United	4-1 W	3-2 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-2 L	0-1 L
FK Liepaja	3-2 W	0-3 L
RFS	1-1 D	2-4 L
Riga FC	2-2 D	0-1 L
SC Grobinas	1-0 W	0-0 D
SK Super Nova	1-1 D	0-1 L
Tukums 2000	3-0 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FK Auda (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Auda

WWDWDWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	3-1	4-1	0	3	W
19/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	3-2	1	4	W
20/09	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-1	9	6	D
16/09	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	5	6	W
11/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-2	3	3	D
06/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
29/08	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-1	6	6	D
25/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	1	4	W
21/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-0	5	5	W

FK Jelgava

LLWWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
18/10	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
11/10	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-4	5	5	L
19/09	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	1	7	L
12/09	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
05/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-1	4-1	4	5	W
22/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	1-2	3-2	6	5	W
09/08	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
01/08	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-1	1-2	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Auda vs FK Jelgava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Auda win (61%). Probabilities: FK Auda 61%, draw 22%, FK Jelgava 17%.

How many goals are expected in FK Auda vs FK Jelgava?

The model expects 2.96 goals (FK Auda 2.01 · FK Jelgava 0.95), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Auda vs FK Jelgava?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.