Football · Latvia Virsliga · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Ogre United vs Riga FC

Team pages: Ogre United · Riga FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.08Total

Ogre United1.04

Riga FC3.04

1X2

7% 11% 82%

Ogre United Draw Riga FC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Ogre United 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLLDLWLLL

Riga FC 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDLDDWWWWW

Head-to-head

Ogre United 0–3 Riga FC (3 last)

Riga FC4-1Ogre United
Ogre United1-4Riga FC
Riga FC4-0Ogre United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ogre United 1386 · Riga FC 1618

	Ogre United	Draw	Riga FC
Our model	9%	14%	77%
Market	4%	8%	87%

Estimated total (ours) 4.08 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Riga FC (rating 1386 vs 1618).
H2H favours Riga FC: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ogre United	Riga FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.4	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	3.1 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

121.00

X11.00

21.07

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+3)1.80

2 (-3)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:56

	Bet365	Best now
1	21.00 → 21.00	Bet365 21.00
X	11.00 → 11.00	Bet365 11.00
2	1.07 → 1.07	Bet365 1.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:22 +34’	21.00	11.00	1.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ogre United 0–0–3 Riga FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-1 HT 4-1	Ogre United
13/06/26 Latvia Virsliga	Ogre United	1-4 HT 0-2	Riga FC
22/04/26 Latvia Virsliga	Riga FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Ogre United

Standings · Latvia Virsliga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	RFS	34	27	5	2	84	24	86
2	Riga FC	34	25	7	2	95	33	82
3	FK Auda	34	20	7	7	57	35	67
4	BFC Daugavpils	34	13	9	12	40	37	48
5	FK Liepaja	34	13	8	13	46	46	47
6	SK Super Nova	34	11	5	18	32	50	38
7	FK Jelgava	34	8	8	18	34	57	32
8	SC Grobinas	34	6	11	17	27	61	29
9	Tukums 2000	34	5	10	19	44	65	25
10	Ogre United	34	4	6	24	34	85	18

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ogre United	Riga FC
FK Auda	1-4 L	2-2 D
SC Grobinas	2-3 L	5-2 W
BFC Daugavpils	1-2 L	1-1 D
SK Super Nova	1-0 W	2-1 W
FK Liepaja	2-2 D	2-3 L
Tukums 2000	1-2 L	2-0 W
RFS	0-3 L	3-3 D
FK Jelgava	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Riga FC (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ogre United

LLLLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-3	1-4	1	3	L
17/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-3	10	3	L
11/10	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
20/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
16/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/09	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
05/09	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-2	7	9	L
30/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
22/08	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	2-1	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	Riga FC Latvia Virsliga	1-4	1-4	2	8	L

Riga FC

WDLDDWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	SC Grobinas Latvia Virsliga	4-0	5-2	5	6	W
18/10	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
10/10	Tukums 2000 Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
19/09	FK Jelgava Latvia Virsliga	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/09	SK Super Nova Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-0	11	8	W
11/09	FK Auda Latvia Virsliga	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
07/09	BFC Daugavpils Latvia Virsliga	0-0	1-1	6	1	D
31/08	FK Liepaja Latvia Virsliga	1-2	2-3	9	5	L
23/08	RFS Latvia Virsliga	1-0	3-3	3	4	D
09/08	Ogre United Latvia Virsliga	4-1	4-1	5	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ogre United vs Riga FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Riga FC win (82%). Probabilities: Ogre United 7%, draw 11%, Riga FC 82%.

How many goals are expected in Ogre United vs Riga FC?

The model expects 4.08 goals (Ogre United 1.04 · Riga FC 3.04), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Ogre United vs Riga FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.