Football · Uganda Premier League · 21/10, 15:00
Prediction: Lugazi FC vs Express FC
Team pages: Lugazi FC · Express FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.69Total
Lugazi FC0.9
Express FC0.78
1X2
Lugazi FC
Draw
Express FC
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 52%
Not both to score 55%
Most likely score
0-0 20%
Recent form · 10 last
Lugazi FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Express FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lugazi FC
2–2–1
Express FC
(5 last)
- Express FC0-0Lugazi FC
- Lugazi FC0-0Express FC
- Lugazi FC1-0Express FC
- Express FC0-1Lugazi FC
- Express FC1-0Lugazi FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lugazi FC 1461 · Express FC 1485
| Lugazi FC | Draw | Express FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 37% | 28% |
| Market | 38% | 31% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.69 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 76%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Lugazi FC: 2-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lugazi FC | Express FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 0 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/100/0% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.2 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugazi FC 2–2–1 Express FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 Uganda Premier League | Express FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Lugazi FC |
| 20/11/25 Uganda Premier League | Lugazi FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Express FC |
| 06/03/25 Uganda Premier League | Lugazi FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Express FC |
| 22/10/24 Uganda Premier League | Express FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Lugazi FC |
| 19/02/23 Uganda Cup | Express FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Lugazi FC |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 16 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 11 |
| 5 | Vipers SC | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Maroons | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 10 |
| 7 | KCCA | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 |
| 8 | Blacks Power | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 9 | Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 10 | UPDF FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 |
| 11 | Uganda Police FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 7 |
| 12 | Lugazi FC | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 7 |
| 13 | Mbarara City | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Express FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 15 | URA | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
| 16 | Ntugasaze FC | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| 17 | Kataka FC | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 2 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lugazi FC | Express FC |
|---|---|---|
| BUL FC | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| NEC FC Bugolobi | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lugazi FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 07/10 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/09 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 09/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/09 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | Maroons Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/05 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 06/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
Express FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 08/10 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 17/09 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/09 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 03/09 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 30/08 | BUL FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/05 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Kitara FC Uganda Premier League |
3-1 | 3-2 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 08/05 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lugazi FC vs Express FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lugazi FC win (37%). Probabilities: Lugazi FC 37%, draw 34%, Express FC 30%.
How many goals are expected in Lugazi FC vs Express FC?
The model expects 1.69 goals (Lugazi FC 0.9 · Express FC 0.78), with a 59% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Lugazi FC vs Express FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.