Football · Uganda Premier League · 31/10, 14:00

Prediction: Lugazi FC vs SC Villa

Team pages: Lugazi FC · SC Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Lugazi FC0.55

SC Villa1.38

1X2

15% 28% 57%

Lugazi FC Draw SC Villa

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-1 19%

Recent form · 10 last

Lugazi FC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLDDL

SC Villa 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWDWWD

Head-to-head

Lugazi FC 0–2–4 SC Villa (6 last)

Lugazi FC0-1SC Villa
SC Villa0-0Lugazi FC
Lugazi FC0-1SC Villa
Lugazi FC0-1SC Villa
SC Villa1-1Lugazi FC
SC Villa4-1Lugazi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lugazi FC 1452 · SC Villa 1581

	Lugazi FC	Draw	SC Villa
Our model	14%	30%	56%
Market	16%	26%	58%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SC Villa (rating 1452 vs 1581).
H2H favours SC Villa: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lugazi FC	SC Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.2	2.2 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 0	1.4 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.4	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

15.75

X3.50

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	1.45 → 1.55▲	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:16 +68’	7.00	3.60	1.45
17:14 +10’	5.75▼	3.50▼	1.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lugazi FC 0–2–4 SC Villa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Uganda Premier League	Lugazi FC	0-1 HT 0-1	SC Villa
31/01/26 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	0-0 HT 0-0	Lugazi FC
24/05/25 Uganda Premier League	Lugazi FC	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Villa
18/03/25 Uganda Cup	Lugazi FC	0-1 HT 0-0	SC Villa
06/12/24 Uganda Premier League	SC Villa	1-1 HT 1-0	Lugazi FC
21/12/18 Uganda Cup	SC Villa	4-1 HT 3-0	Lugazi FC

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	7	6	1	0	15	4	19
2	SC Villa	8	5	3	0	16	3	18
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	8	5	2	1	17	5	17
4	Entebbe UPPC	8	4	3	1	7	2	15
5	Uganda Police FC	9	4	2	3	9	12	14
6	KCCA	7	4	1	2	6	5	13
7	Blacks Power	8	4	1	3	9	11	13
8	Vipers SC	7	3	2	2	13	3	11
9	Maroons	8	3	2	3	13	8	11
10	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
11	UPDF FC	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Mbarara City	7	2	2	3	3	5	8
13	Lugazi FC	8	2	2	4	5	11	8
14	Express FC	8	1	4	3	6	8	7
15	URA	7	2	1	4	6	10	7
16	Kataka FC	9	0	3	6	7	21	3
17	Ntugasaze FC	7	1	0	6	4	18	3
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	7	0	1	6	2	12	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lugazi FC	SC Villa
Express FC	0-0 D	2-0 W
Uganda Police FC	0-2 L	6-1 W
NEC FC Bugolobi	1-3 L	4-1 W
Kigezi Homeboyz FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: SC Villa (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lugazi FC

DLWLWLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/10	KCCA Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-2	1	2	L
21/10	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/10	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
07/10	Maroons Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
16/09	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
09/09	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/09	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
23/05	Maroons Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D

SC Villa

WWDWWWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
22/10	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
14/10	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	3-0	6-1	4	2	W
07/10	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/09	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	3-0	3	5	W
09/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
04/09	URA Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/08	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-1	2	1	D
23/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	2-0	2-1	6	0	W
20/05	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	3-0	4-1	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lugazi FC vs SC Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an SC Villa win (57%). Probabilities: Lugazi FC 15%, draw 28%, SC Villa 57%.

How many goals are expected in Lugazi FC vs SC Villa?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Lugazi FC 0.55 · SC Villa 1.38), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lugazi FC vs SC Villa?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.