Football · Uganda Premier League · 31/10, 14:00
Prediction: Mbarara City vs KCCA
Team pages: Mbarara City · KCCA
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.86Total
Mbarara City0.75
KCCA1.11
1X2
Mbarara City
Draw
KCCA
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 57%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
0-0 17%
Recent form · 10 last
Mbarara City
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
KCCA
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Mbarara City
0–6
KCCA
(6 last)
- KCCA4-1Mbarara City
- KCCA1-0Mbarara City
- Mbarara City1-2KCCA
- KCCA1-0Mbarara City
- Mbarara City0-2KCCA
- KCCA4-0Mbarara City
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KCCA (rating 1464 vs 1573).
- H2H favours KCCA: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mbarara City | KCCA | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 3.6 | 3.5 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mbarara City 0–0–6 KCCA
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/26 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Mbarara City |
| 22/02/26 Uganda Cup | KCCA | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mbarara City |
| 28/11/25 Uganda Premier League | Mbarara City | 1-2 HT 1-1 | KCCA |
| 26/04/25 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Mbarara City |
| 07/01/25 Uganda Premier League | Mbarara City | 0-2 HT 0-0 | KCCA |
| 18/04/24 Uganda Premier League | KCCA | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Mbarara City |
Standings · Uganda Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BUL FC | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 19 |
| 2 | SC Villa | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 18 |
| 3 | NEC FC Bugolobi | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 17 |
| 4 | Entebbe UPPC | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Uganda Police FC | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 12 | 14 |
| 6 | KCCA | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 7 | Blacks Power | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 13 |
| 8 | Vipers SC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Maroons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Kitara FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | UPDF FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 8 |
| 12 | Mbarara City | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 13 | Lugazi FC | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 8 |
| 14 | Express FC | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | URA | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 7 |
| 16 | Kataka FC | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 3 |
| 17 | Ntugasaze FC | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 18 | 3 |
| 18 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mbarara City | KCCA |
|---|---|---|
| Ntugasaze FC | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| NEC FC Bugolobi | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mbarara City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Vipers SC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/10 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/10 | Blacks Power Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 07/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 16/09 | Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 11/09 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/05 | KCCA Uganda Premier League |
0-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 19/05 | Buhimba United Saints FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 13/05 | SC Villa Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
KCCA
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10 | Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 13/10 | Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 09/10 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 16/09 | Kataka FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 08/09 | Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 03/09 | Express FC Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Mbarara City Uganda Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/05 | URA Uganda Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | UPDF FC Uganda Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mbarara City vs KCCA?
According to our model, the most likely result is an KCCA win (43%). Probabilities: Mbarara City 23%, draw 34%, KCCA 43%.
How many goals are expected in Mbarara City vs KCCA?
The model expects 1.86 goals (Mbarara City 0.75 · KCCA 1.11), with a 55% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Mbarara City vs KCCA?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.