Football · Uganda Premier League · 28/10, 14:00

Prediction: KCCA vs Lugazi FC

Team pages: KCCA · Lugazi FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

KCCA1.67

Lugazi FC0.44

1X2

68% 22% 10%

KCCA Draw Lugazi FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0 19%

Recent form · 10 last

KCCA 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLDWWW

Lugazi FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLWLLDD

Head-to-head

KCCA 2–2–0 Lugazi FC (4 last)

Lugazi FC0-3KCCA
KCCA0-0Lugazi FC
KCCA5-0Lugazi FC
Lugazi FC1-1KCCA

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KCCA 1573 · Lugazi FC 1443

	KCCA	Draw	Lugazi FC
Our model	67%	25%	8%
Market	69%	20%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KCCA (rating 1573 vs 1443).
H2H favours KCCA: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KCCA	Lugazi FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.6	0.4 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.2	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X4.50

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
23:11 +5’	1.30	4.50	8.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · KCCA 2–2–0 Lugazi FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Uganda Premier League	Lugazi FC	0-3 HT 0-1	KCCA
16/10/25 Uganda Premier League	KCCA	0-0 HT 0-0	Lugazi FC
14/05/25 Uganda Premier League	KCCA	5-0 HT 3-0	Lugazi FC
30/11/24 Uganda Premier League	Lugazi FC	1-1 HT 0-0	KCCA

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	7	6	1	0	15	4	19
2	SC Villa	8	5	3	0	16	3	18
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	8	5	2	1	17	5	17
4	Entebbe UPPC	7	4	2	1	7	2	14
5	Blacks Power	8	4	1	3	9	11	13
6	Vipers SC	6	3	2	1	13	2	11
7	Uganda Police FC	8	3	2	3	7	11	11
8	Maroons	7	3	1	3	13	8	10
9	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4	4	10
10	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
11	UPDF FC	7	2	2	3	4	6	8
12	Lugazi FC	7	2	2	3	4	9	8
13	Express FC	8	1	4	3	6	8	7
14	URA	7	2	1	4	6	10	7
15	Mbarara City	6	1	2	3	2	5	5
16	Kataka FC	8	0	3	5	6	19	3
17	Ntugasaze FC	7	1	0	6	4	18	3
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	7	0	1	6	2	12	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KCCA	Lugazi FC
Kigezi Homeboyz FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Express FC	0-2 L	0-0 D
NEC FC Bugolobi	0-2 L	1-3 L
Maroons	3-0 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Lugazi FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KCCA

WWDWLLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
09/10	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
16/09	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
08/09	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	0	D
03/09	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	3	L
29/08	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	7	4	L
23/05	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	2-0	4-1	7	1	W
19/05	URA Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
13/05	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-1	2-1	5	5	W
07/05	Maroons Uganda Premier League	1-0	3-0	8	4	W

Lugazi FC

DDLWLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
13/10	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
07/10	Maroons Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	3	L
16/09	Uganda Police FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
09/09	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/09	NEC FC Bugolobi Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-3	6	2	L
29/08	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-1	5	0	W
23/05	Maroons Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/05	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	1	5	D
12/05	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KCCA vs Lugazi FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KCCA win (68%). Probabilities: KCCA 68%, draw 22%, Lugazi FC 10%.

How many goals are expected in KCCA vs Lugazi FC?

The model expects 2.11 goals (KCCA 1.67 · Lugazi FC 0.44), with a 58% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KCCA vs Lugazi FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.