Football · Uganda Premier League · 21/10, 15:00

Prediction: BUL FC vs NEC FC Bugolobi

Team pages: BUL FC · NEC FC Bugolobi

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.09Total

BUL FC1.16

NEC FC Bugolobi0.93

1X2

40% 32% 28%

BUL FC Draw NEC FC Bugolobi

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

BUL FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWWWDW

NEC FC Bugolobi 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWDWDW

Head-to-head

BUL FC 0–4–2 NEC FC Bugolobi (6 last)

BUL FC0-1NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi1-1BUL FC
NEC FC Bugolobi1-1BUL FC
BUL FC1-1NEC FC Bugolobi
NEC FC Bugolobi2-0BUL FC
BUL FC1-1NEC FC Bugolobi

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BUL FC 1538 · NEC FC Bugolobi 1575

	BUL FC	Draw	NEC FC Bugolobi
Our model	40%	32%	28%
Market	40%	32%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.09 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NEC FC Bugolobi: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BUL FC	NEC FC Bugolobi
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.4	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X2.80

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.80

Under 1.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 4.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:58 +7’	2.25	2.80	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +51’	2.22	2.25	4.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · BUL FC 0–4–2 NEC FC Bugolobi

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	0-1 HT 0-1	NEC FC Bugolobi
08/11/25 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	1-1 HT 1-1	BUL FC
07/05/25 Uganda Premier League	NEC FC Bugolobi	1-1 HT 0-1	BUL FC
18/12/24 Uganda Premier League	BUL FC	1-1 HT 0-1	NEC FC Bugolobi
04/05/24 Uganda Cup	NEC FC Bugolobi	2-0 HT 2-0	BUL FC
28/04/24 Uganda Cup	BUL FC	1-1 HT 1-0	NEC FC Bugolobi

Standings · Uganda Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	BUL FC	6	5	1	0	13	3	16
2	SC Villa	6	4	2	0	14	3	14
3	NEC FC Bugolobi	6	4	2	0	11	2	14
4	Entebbe UPPC	6	3	2	1	6	2	11
5	Vipers SC	5	3	1	1	13	2	10
6	Maroons	7	3	1	3	13	8	10
7	KCCA	6	3	1	2	4	4	10
8	Blacks Power	6	3	0	3	6	9	9
9	Kitara FC	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
10	UPDF FC	6	2	2	2	4	5	8
11	Uganda Police FC	6	2	1	3	4	10	7
12	Lugazi FC	6	2	1	3	4	9	7
13	Mbarara City	5	1	2	2	2	3	5
14	Express FC	6	1	2	3	4	6	5
15	URA	5	1	1	3	3	7	4
16	Ntugasaze FC	6	1	0	5	3	13	3
17	Kataka FC	7	0	2	5	4	17	2
18	Kigezi Homeboyz FC	5	0	1	4	1	8	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BUL FC	NEC FC Bugolobi
Lugazi FC	0-0 D	3-1 W
Express FC	1-0 W	0-0 D
Kitara FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
SC Villa	0-0 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BUL FC

DDDLWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	UPDF FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	2-0	8	4	W
13/10	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
15/09	Blacks Power Uganda Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	5	W
08/09	Ntugasaze FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	7	2	W
03/09	Kataka FC Uganda Premier League	2-1	4-1	3	4	W
30/08	Express FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
23/05	Entebbe UPPC Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-4	–	–	L
19/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
12/05	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
08/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

NEC FC Bugolobi

WWLLWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/10	Kigezi Homeboyz FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
08/10	Express FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
15/09	URA Uganda Premier League	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
11/09	Mbarara City Uganda Premier League	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
01/09	Lugazi FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	3-1	10	2	W
29/08	KCCA Uganda Premier League	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
23/05	FC Calvary Uganda Premier League	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
20/05	SC Villa Uganda Premier League	0-3	1-4	3	6	L
09/05	Kitara FC Uganda Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
28/04	BUL FC Uganda Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BUL FC vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

According to our model, the most likely result is a BUL FC win (40%). Probabilities: BUL FC 40%, draw 32%, NEC FC Bugolobi 28%.

How many goals are expected in BUL FC vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

The model expects 2.09 goals (BUL FC 1.16 · NEC FC Bugolobi 0.93), with a 54% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in BUL FC vs NEC FC Bugolobi?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.