Football · Mexico Liga MX · 26/10, 02:05

Prediction: Club America vs Pachuca

Team pages: Club America · Pachuca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Club America2.11

Pachuca1.12

1X2

59% 23% 18%

Club America Draw Pachuca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Club America 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Pachuca 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Club America 3–2–1 Pachuca (6 last)

Pachuca0-0Club America
Club America2-0Pachuca
Club America2-0Pachuca
Pachuca0-0Club America
Pachuca1-0Club America
Club America2-1Pachuca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club America 1560 · Pachuca 1475

	Club America	Draw	Pachuca
Our model	59%	22%	18%
Market	59%	23%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Club America (rating 1560 vs 1475).
H2H favours Club America: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club America	Pachuca
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.5	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.75 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.46 ★
2	4.50 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +4’	1.70	3.75	4.50
08:11 +9’	1.65▼	3.80▲	4.75▲
14:31 +3’	1.55▼	4.10▲	5.75▲
20:01 +5’	1.60▲	4.00▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:15 +9’	1.66	4.15	4.46
06:14 +8’	1.64▼	4.28▲	4.70▲
07:03 +17’	1.57▼	4.46▲	5.10▲
15:05 +34’	1.55▼	4.52▲	5.23▲
16:09 +34’	1.58▲	4.43▼	5.05▼
22:12 +3’	1.57▼	4.46▲	5.08▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 3 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club America 3–2–1 Pachuca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-0 HT 0-0	Club America
31/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-0 HT 1-0	Pachuca
11/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-0 HT 2-0	Pachuca
08/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-0 HT 0-0	Club America
06/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	1-0 HT 1-0	Club America
07/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-1 HT 1-1	Pachuca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	32	16	27
2	Chivas Guadalajara	13	6	5	2	20	12	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28	18	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	20	17	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	21	23	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
8	Queretaro	12	6	2	4	16	15	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	19	16	19
10	Tijuana	12	4	5	3	17	16	17
11	Unam Pumas	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	18	22	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	14	18	14
15	Atlante	13	3	5	5	14	19	14
16	Pachuca	13	3	4	6	20	18	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	15	26	9
18	Juarez FC	13	1	1	11	8	32	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club America	Pachuca
Monterrey	1-1 D	1-2 L
Necaxa	4-2 W	3-3 D
Chivas Guadalajara	2-2 D	1-1 D
Cruz Azul	3-4 L	1-2 L
Puebla	2-0 W	2-3 L
Juarez FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Atletico San Luis	3-0 W	1-1 D
Santos Laguna	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Club America (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club America

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
18/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-3	2	8	W
11/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-2	4-2	5	5	W
20/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
13/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	3-4	9	7	L
30/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
17/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	10	3	W
03/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	4	1	W

Pachuca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	0	8	L
19/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-2	8	7	L
12/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	5	8	D
27/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
21/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	10	3	D
12/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	3-0	3-0	5	6	W
05/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	10	W
30/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club America vs Pachuca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club America win (59%). Probabilities: Club America 59%, draw 23%, Pachuca 18%.

How many goals are expected in Club America vs Pachuca?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Club America 2.11 · Pachuca 1.12), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Club America vs Pachuca?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.