Football · Mexico Liga MX · 01/11, 05:00

Prediction: Club America vs Toluca

Team pages: Club America · Toluca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

Club America1.77

Toluca1.69

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Club America Draw Toluca

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Club America 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Toluca 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Club America 2–1–3 Toluca (6 last)

Club America2-1Toluca
Toluca2-0Club America
Club America1-3Toluca
Toluca2-0Club America
Club America0-0Toluca
Club America3-0Toluca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club America 1530 · Toluca 1516

	Club America	Draw	Toluca
Our model	39%	24%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Toluca: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club America	Toluca
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.7	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	4 / 7.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.70

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:54 +31’	2.40	3.70	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club America 2–1–3 Toluca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	2-1 HT 1-0	Toluca
09/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	2-0 HT 1-0	Club America
21/07/25 Mexico Champion of Champions	Club America	1-3 HT 1-2	Toluca
26/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Toluca	2-0 HT 0-0	Club America
23/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	0-0 HT 0-0	Toluca
02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Club America	3-0 HT 1-0	Toluca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	13	8	3	2	33	18	27
2	Cruz Azul	14	8	2	4	32	23	26
3	Chivas Guadalajara	14	7	5	2	21	12	26
4	Atlas	14	7	3	4	25	26	24
5	Toluca	14	6	5	3	29	19	23
6	Leon	14	6	4	4	21	18	22
7	Monterrey	13	6	2	5	23	18	20
8	Tijuana	13	5	5	3	21	17	20
9	Queretaro	13	6	2	5	17	18	20
10	Santos Laguna	14	6	1	7	20	20	19
11	Atletico San Luis	14	5	4	5	19	22	19
12	Unam Pumas	14	4	5	5	20	23	17
13	Pachuca	14	4	4	6	22	19	16
14	Puebla	14	4	4	6	16	21	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	3	6	5	15	19	15
16	Atlante	14	3	5	6	14	20	14
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16	27	10
18	Juarez FC	14	1	2	11	9	33	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club America	Toluca
Atlas	5-2 W	5-2 W
Leon	5-3 W	1-1 D
Cruz Azul	3-4 L	3-3 D
Puebla	2-0 W	1-0 W
Juarez FC	2-1 W	4-0 W
Atletico San Luis	3-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Club America (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club America

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
22/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-2	4	3	W
18/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-3	2	8	W
11/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
28/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	2-2	4-2	5	5	W
20/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
13/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	3-4	9	7	L
30/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
22/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	6	W
17/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	10	3	W

Toluca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
22/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-2	17	0	D
18/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	15	0	D
10/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	6	5	L
27/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-2	3-3	5	5	D
21/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	6	3	L
16/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
13/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	6	4	W
31/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
22/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club America vs Toluca?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club America win (39%). Probabilities: Club America 39%, draw 25%, Toluca 36%.

How many goals are expected in Club America vs Toluca?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Club America 1.77 · Toluca 1.69), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Club America vs Toluca?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.